* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAUSTO EP062026 07/27/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 65 60 55 50 43 37 33 29 25 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 65 60 55 50 43 37 33 29 25 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 66 62 57 53 45 40 36 34 31 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 17 15 20 25 30 41 34 50 52 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 3 5 7 0 0 3 -9 -10 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 280 285 274 258 263 264 272 279 295 291 289 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.3 25.3 26.0 26.0 26.3 25.9 26.1 25.8 26.0 26.4 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 117 117 124 124 127 123 125 122 124 128 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.4 -51.5 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -52.3 -52.7 -53.4 -54.3 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.4 -0.6 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 39 39 37 37 39 36 36 39 43 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 19 18 16 15 12 10 9 8 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -23 -33 -27 -22 -1 -1 6 -1 -3 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -8 -13 7 21 21 5 5 7 -13 12 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 4 2 2 3 4 0 3 6 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 976 847 724 604 494 343 230 146 194 391 608 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.9 21.3 21.6 21.8 22.3 22.8 23.0 23.8 24.4 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 145.5 146.8 148.1 149.4 150.7 153.0 155.3 157.8 160.4 162.9 165.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 12 12 11 11 12 12 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -6. -10. -14. -17. -21. -24. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -15. -18. -18. -19. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -15. -20. -27. -33. -37. -41. -45. -49. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 20.5 145.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062026 FAUSTO 07/27/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.19 1.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.08 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 662.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.16 -0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.19 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 1.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.5 60.4 to 0.0 0.89 0.8 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -47.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.42 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 10.0% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 3.4% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.1% 1.7% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062026 FAUSTO 07/27/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##