* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAUSTO EP062026 07/27/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 60 54 49 44 39 34 31 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 60 54 49 44 39 34 31 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 60 56 51 47 41 36 32 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 15 21 28 31 39 39 42 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 4 7 4 -2 1 -3 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 280 266 259 267 270 270 280 276 295 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.2 26.0 26.0 26.2 26.1 26.0 26.0 25.8 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 116 125 124 126 125 124 124 122 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.5 -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -52.6 -53.1 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 38 36 37 38 36 37 37 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 17 15 14 12 10 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -28 -25 -21 -9 6 5 9 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -16 16 31 23 5 1 0 -13 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 6 3 2 2 7 1 5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 850 721 600 510 435 298 197 140 249 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.4 21.7 22.0 22.3 22.7 22.9 23.4 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 146.8 148.2 149.5 150.7 151.8 154.0 156.4 158.9 161.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 10 11 12 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -15. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -10. -14. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -16. -21. -26. -31. -34. -39. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 21.1 146.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062026 FAUSTO 07/27/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.24 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 631.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.19 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.22 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.1 60.4 to 0.0 0.78 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -47.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.43 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062026 FAUSTO 07/27/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##