* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAUSTO EP062026 07/28/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 55 50 45 42 39 35 33 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 55 50 45 42 39 35 33 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 56 52 48 45 41 37 35 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 22 30 35 36 39 40 46 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 5 1 -2 1 -1 -4 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 256 257 269 272 272 275 271 281 289 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.0 26.0 26.2 26.1 25.9 26.1 25.8 26.0 26.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 126 125 123 125 122 124 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.4 -51.7 -52.0 -52.1 -52.5 -52.9 -53.4 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.8 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 36 36 38 36 32 34 35 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 17 15 14 13 12 10 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -23 -20 -6 -1 6 5 11 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 41 26 2 0 1 1 -2 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 0 2 4 5 3 3 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 710 588 480 407 345 225 178 204 375 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.5 21.8 22.0 22.3 22.6 22.9 23.3 23.9 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 148.3 149.7 151.0 152.2 153.3 155.6 158.0 160.4 163.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 11 11 11 11 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 773 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -9. -13. -15. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -15. -18. -21. -25. -27. -31. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 21.5 148.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062026 FAUSTO 07/28/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.29 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 38.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 588.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.24 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.25 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.7 60.4 to 0.0 0.49 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -35.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.26 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.7% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062026 FAUSTO 07/28/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##