* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAUSTO EP062026 07/28/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 51 46 43 41 36 35 33 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 51 46 43 41 36 35 33 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 51 47 44 41 36 32 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 28 31 32 35 41 45 44 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 8 6 0 0 -1 -4 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 252 263 267 264 265 278 272 284 283 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.0 26.2 26.0 25.9 26.0 25.7 25.9 26.1 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 126 124 123 124 121 123 125 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.3 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 -52.5 -52.9 -53.8 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 35 36 36 35 31 32 33 37 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 16 15 15 12 10 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -11 4 1 8 12 12 13 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 37 10 0 1 -10 -9 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 8 4 4 7 1 3 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 586 490 410 345 280 212 175 282 493 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.1 22.4 22.6 22.8 23.2 23.8 24.0 24.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 149.7 151.0 152.2 153.3 154.4 156.7 159.3 161.8 164.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 10 10 12 12 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 729 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -12. -14. -19. -20. -22. -27. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 21.8 149.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062026 FAUSTO 07/28/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.33 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 42.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 575.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.26 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.25 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 51.1 60.4 to 0.0 0.15 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -43.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.38 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062026 FAUSTO 07/28/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##