* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAUSTO EP062026 07/28/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 45 41 38 36 36 34 33 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 45 41 38 36 36 34 33 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 46 42 39 37 33 31 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 29 31 36 41 41 48 39 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 4 0 0 2 -3 -4 2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 263 272 271 272 277 274 282 274 275 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 25.9 25.7 26.0 26.1 25.7 25.9 26.5 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 123 121 124 125 121 123 129 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.7 -53.2 -54.0 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.7 0.3 -0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 34 35 34 31 30 31 34 39 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 14 13 11 12 10 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 0 1 6 8 8 6 10 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 8 8 5 -7 3 21 -15 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 0 5 2 1 6 0 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 459 382 317 249 210 163 226 421 642 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.1 22.3 22.6 22.8 23.3 23.9 24.3 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 151.1 152.3 153.4 154.5 155.7 158.3 160.9 163.4 165.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 11 12 12 12 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 776 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -3. -6. -8. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -12. -14. -14. -16. -17. -20. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 21.8 151.1 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062026 FAUSTO 07/28/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.37 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 44.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 531.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.30 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.20 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 77.0 60.4 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -15.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062026 FAUSTO 07/28/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##