* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982026 07/23/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 35 41 46 58 69 82 93 101 98 99 103 102 102 99 97 V (KT) LAND 25 30 35 41 46 58 69 82 93 101 98 99 103 102 102 99 97 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 31 34 38 47 58 69 81 88 91 95 101 106 104 94 82 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 10 8 9 7 5 4 10 6 7 5 6 4 3 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -3 0 1 3 0 -3 -4 0 -2 -1 -3 4 8 7 SHEAR DIR 46 34 47 51 31 25 286 283 329 317 316 326 344 321 188 99 81 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.8 29.7 29.7 30.0 30.2 30.0 30.4 30.7 29.8 29.6 29.1 28.9 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 157 159 162 161 162 166 168 166 169 170 161 159 154 154 140 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.9 -51.6 -52.2 -52.7 -52.0 -52.7 -51.8 -52.5 -51.8 -52.2 -51.5 -51.6 -50.7 -50.6 -49.9 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.4 1.1 1.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 4 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 6 3 700-500 MB RH 78 78 76 75 75 75 73 74 76 77 75 72 72 71 70 70 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 17 17 20 23 27 29 34 32 33 37 38 41 38 34 850 MB ENV VOR 12 14 4 -2 -2 8 -1 0 -7 6 -3 16 27 57 61 73 67 200 MB DIV 125 123 130 117 103 109 143 194 120 102 82 67 44 60 5 8 -8 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -2 -1 -2 0 -3 -1 0 4 3 1 4 0 1 -8 -5 LAND (KM) 774 807 789 781 784 769 734 691 616 517 430 404 417 382 300 264 316 LAT (DEG N) 8.3 8.4 8.6 8.8 9.0 9.6 10.5 11.7 13.2 15.1 16.8 18.1 18.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.6 96.5 97.3 98.1 98.9 100.5 102.0 103.8 105.5 107.0 108.0 108.7 109.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 8 8 8 10 11 12 11 9 6 4 5 6 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 11 16 16 16 16 18 20 20 37 26 14 27 17 13 9 1 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 11. 20. 29. 36. 41. 43. 46. 48. 49. 50. 51. 54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 14. 20. 25. 23. 22. 25. 24. 24. 20. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 21. 33. 44. 57. 68. 76. 73. 74. 78. 77. 77. 74. 72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.3 95.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982026 INVEST 07/23/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.87 9.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.70 6.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 24.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -7.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 119.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.75 5.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 4.4 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 17.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.16 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -64.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.65 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 3.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 64% is 10.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 45.7% 25.5% 0.0% 0.0% 29.4% 63.8% 0.0% Logistic: 20.3% 70.7% 52.2% 36.0% 22.4% 40.5% 51.1% 73.4% Bayesian: 2.4% 10.2% 13.3% 2.7% 0.2% 11.8% 11.5% 16.7% Consensus: 7.6% 42.2% 30.4% 12.9% 7.5% 27.2% 42.1% 30.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982026 INVEST 07/23/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##