* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982026 07/23/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 38 43 56 66 78 92 93 95 92 95 96 97 94 92 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 38 43 56 66 78 92 93 95 92 95 96 97 94 92 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 30 33 40 50 60 69 75 82 90 96 101 98 91 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 8 9 9 7 2 3 5 11 11 15 8 10 9 12 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 0 0 2 2 4 1 2 1 -1 -1 -4 0 7 3 SHEAR DIR 43 39 46 24 5 319 234 228 347 328 333 348 335 23 84 63 28 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.5 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.8 30.2 30.1 30.2 30.6 30.7 29.8 29.1 28.7 27.7 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 159 164 164 162 163 167 166 167 170 170 162 155 152 142 129 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.7 -52.4 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -51.8 -51.5 -51.3 -50.8 -50.5 -50.2 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.5 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 6 8 8 7 6 5 3 2 700-500 MB RH 79 77 74 75 76 73 73 75 78 75 74 71 68 67 66 61 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 17 16 17 17 21 23 27 31 31 34 33 36 38 42 39 36 850 MB ENV VOR 10 3 -2 -9 -1 -16 -6 -7 1 6 10 22 46 55 63 67 91 200 MB DIV 122 130 117 100 88 103 135 151 104 74 20 26 55 24 12 -11 2 700-850 TADV -3 -2 0 -1 0 -3 -3 -2 3 6 2 2 2 0 -6 -15 -10 LAND (KM) 781 753 742 746 734 733 699 676 579 474 387 376 407 335 347 467 641 LAT (DEG N) 8.6 8.9 9.1 9.3 9.6 10.3 11.3 12.4 14.0 15.7 17.3 18.4 19.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.2 97.0 97.8 98.7 99.5 101.3 103.1 104.9 106.4 107.3 107.9 108.6 109.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 9 7 6 7 8 10 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 12 17 19 20 19 18 20 30 39 22 17 28 15 10 5 5 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 36.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 10. 20. 29. 35. 39. 42. 43. 46. 47. 49. 50. 53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 16. 23. 23. 25. 22. 25. 24. 25. 21. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 31. 41. 53. 67. 68. 70. 67. 70. 71. 72. 69. 67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.6 96.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982026 INVEST 07/23/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.88 8.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.65 4.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 27.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -5.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 111.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.71 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.8 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 19.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.18 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -24.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.12 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 47% is 7.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.8% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 22.8% 46.9% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 24.3% 10.4% 5.0% 1.6% 12.6% 35.6% 56.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.1% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 6.8% Consensus: 1.1% 16.7% 10.4% 1.8% 0.5% 11.9% 27.5% 21.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 13.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 4.0% 26.0% 86.0% SDCON: 1.0% 14.8% 7.2% 1.4% 0.2% 7.9% 26.7% 53.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982026 INVEST 07/23/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##