* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982026 07/24/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 39 45 59 71 85 96 94 98 99 99 99 96 94 91 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 39 45 59 71 85 96 94 98 99 99 99 96 94 91 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 31 34 44 57 71 82 88 94 99 101 100 95 90 82 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 8 9 10 1 4 8 11 13 11 15 10 5 8 7 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 0 0 0 4 0 -1 -4 -3 -3 -3 -3 -1 0 1 1 SHEAR DIR 49 67 50 23 14 329 271 328 352 358 10 1 352 63 53 35 5 SST (C) 29.3 29.7 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.8 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.1 29.2 29.0 28.0 28.2 27.4 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 157 162 165 164 162 163 167 165 164 162 154 155 153 142 146 139 127 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.4 -52.9 -52.6 -52.1 -52.7 -52.0 -52.7 -51.9 -52.0 -51.3 -51.5 -50.6 -50.6 -50.0 -50.2 -49.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 3 2 700-500 MB RH 76 75 76 76 75 73 74 75 77 74 73 70 67 69 67 65 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 15 17 20 24 28 32 31 34 37 39 42 41 40 37 850 MB ENV VOR 5 -1 -11 -5 -8 -15 -6 -1 9 13 25 30 46 65 76 83 75 200 MB DIV 129 107 92 82 92 125 188 112 96 65 37 50 38 10 0 -1 -7 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -2 -4 -3 -2 4 0 0 1 -1 -4 -9 -6 -6 LAND (KM) 743 725 719 711 718 701 685 632 556 521 548 502 517 583 637 647 744 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.3 9.6 9.9 10.2 11.1 12.2 13.5 15.2 16.8 17.9 18.6 19.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.1 98.0 98.9 99.8 100.7 102.7 104.6 106.5 107.9 109.1 110.2 111.4 112.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 8 7 6 7 5 8 12 16 HEAT CONTENT 17 19 21 19 18 21 25 37 16 18 15 16 16 8 8 4 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 39.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 10. 19. 28. 34. 38. 40. 42. 44. 45. 46. 47. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 18. 25. 23. 27. 29. 29. 29. 25. 22. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 4. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 14. 20. 34. 46. 60. 71. 69. 73. 74. 74. 74. 71. 69. 66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.0 97.1 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982026 INVEST 07/24/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.90 8.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.67 5.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 31.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.66 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 3.6 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 21.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.19 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -33.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.24 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 65% is 11.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 35.3% 20.5% 0.0% 0.0% 26.4% 64.8% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 27.1% 12.0% 6.4% 2.2% 18.4% 50.8% 64.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 13.4% Consensus: 1.2% 21.0% 11.0% 2.2% 0.7% 15.0% 38.6% 25.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 19.0% 6.0% 1.0% 0.0% 9.0% 12.0% 36.0% SDCON: 1.1% 20.0% 8.5% 1.6% 0.3% 12.0% 25.3% 30.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982026 INVEST 07/24/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##