* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982026 07/24/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 37 42 58 76 93 101 105 104 107 104 102 99 96 93 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 37 42 58 76 93 101 105 104 107 104 102 99 96 93 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 30 33 43 58 77 96 105 105 102 99 96 93 86 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 11 10 7 1 3 3 8 10 14 12 11 6 10 8 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 -1 1 2 -1 -2 -1 0 -3 -5 -5 -2 -2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 64 60 48 45 43 31 86 58 23 3 9 3 24 19 31 356 350 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.9 30.1 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.0 28.8 28.3 27.9 27.7 27.4 26.2 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 163 163 165 167 164 161 160 154 151 145 141 139 138 127 120 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.9 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -51.6 -51.3 -50.9 -50.7 -50.4 -50.1 -49.7 -49.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.6 1.2 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 1 700-500 MB RH 74 76 75 74 71 74 73 77 72 71 67 66 66 68 65 63 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 15 17 17 22 25 29 29 33 34 38 40 42 42 41 39 850 MB ENV VOR -1 6 9 10 -5 0 7 25 19 33 43 65 93 102 91 86 99 200 MB DIV 98 91 75 74 81 152 161 71 79 55 44 56 18 35 -3 10 -29 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -3 -7 -6 -3 0 1 1 0 -2 -9 -7 -10 -3 -8 LAND (KM) 752 739 747 733 733 755 765 756 791 763 693 664 691 712 709 809 967 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 6 5 9 14 17 HEAT CONTENT 19 17 17 21 22 29 32 24 29 19 15 12 8 7 5 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 10. 19. 28. 34. 37. 39. 41. 42. 43. 43. 44. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 7. 12. 20. 22. 27. 27. 31. 29. 29. 26. 23. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 12. 17. 33. 51. 68. 76. 80. 79. 82. 79. 77. 74. 71. 68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.3 98.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982026 INVEST 07/24/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.92 7.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.63 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 37.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.57 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 2.2 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 21.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.19 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -17.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.02 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 60% is 10.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.3% 17.5% 0.0% 0.0% 22.8% 59.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 8.9% 3.6% 1.4% 0.4% 5.2% 15.9% 31.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 7.0% Consensus: 0.3% 10.5% 7.1% 0.5% 0.1% 9.3% 25.3% 12.9% DTOPS: 2.0% 18.0% 10.0% 2.0% 1.0% 25.0% 53.0% 96.0% SDCON: 1.1% 14.2% 8.5% 1.2% 0.5% 17.1% 39.1% 54.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982026 INVEST 07/24/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##