* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982026 07/24/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 40 45 50 66 80 93 103 105 102 103 101 95 91 86 81 V (KT) LAND 30 34 40 45 50 66 80 93 103 105 102 103 101 95 91 86 81 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 40 44 56 71 87 99 104 103 100 95 85 76 68 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 11 9 6 7 7 6 6 8 13 12 11 10 10 10 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 2 1 -4 -4 -2 2 0 -3 -3 -5 -3 -6 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 57 43 27 15 357 328 350 42 26 349 2 8 358 13 24 359 9 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.8 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.3 28.3 28.2 28.0 26.7 26.3 25.7 24.7 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 163 164 164 166 165 163 158 147 146 144 131 125 119 110 105 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -51.8 -52.5 -51.8 -51.8 -51.2 -51.2 -50.5 -50.5 -50.1 -50.0 -49.3 -49.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 4 2 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 75 74 73 72 72 73 75 76 70 66 63 61 59 59 59 56 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 15 16 16 16 22 26 28 32 34 35 39 41 41 42 40 37 850 MB ENV VOR 0 8 4 -9 -10 -4 9 22 32 43 76 107 137 150 148 138 138 200 MB DIV 94 90 80 97 120 181 113 86 70 45 14 27 -5 14 -2 0 6 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -5 -5 -6 -3 1 -1 0 0 -2 -6 -6 -5 -10 -4 LAND (KM) 820 824 825 822 825 829 850 909 912 892 897 928 987 1026 1068 1158 1352 LAT (DEG N) 8.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 13 13 12 13 11 8 8 10 10 7 7 11 14 HEAT CONTENT 14 16 21 28 21 34 34 29 22 15 12 9 3 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 41.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 11. 20. 28. 34. 36. 38. 40. 40. 40. 39. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 3. 7. 13. 20. 27. 31. 30. 33. 32. 29. 27. 23. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 9. 5. 0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 15. 20. 36. 50. 63. 73. 75. 72. 73. 71. 65. 61. 56. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 8.9 99.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982026 INVEST 07/24/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.86 7.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.57 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 43.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.63 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.37 1.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 22.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.20 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -41.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.34 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 63% is 10.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 49% is 10.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.2% 21.7% 18.0% 15.1% 0.0% 27.4% 62.9% 48.5% Logistic: 2.5% 24.0% 11.2% 4.9% 1.6% 12.1% 22.5% 31.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 3.8% 2.3% 0.4% 0.0% 2.1% 10.1% 11.1% Consensus: 4.1% 16.5% 10.5% 6.8% 0.5% 13.9% 31.8% 30.2% DTOPS: 6.0% 49.0% 33.0% 7.0% 4.0% 21.0% 39.0% 76.0% SDCON: 5.0% 32.7% 21.7% 6.9% 2.2% 17.4% 35.4% 53.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982026 INVEST 07/24/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##