* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072026 07/24/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 41 47 53 63 79 94 100 104 102 104 99 98 93 87 81 76 V (KT) LAND 35 41 47 53 63 79 94 100 104 102 104 99 98 93 87 81 76 V (KT) LGEM 35 40 45 51 57 74 91 106 114 112 107 102 95 86 76 67 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 10 8 9 8 8 8 9 13 9 11 11 9 7 12 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 3 3 0 -4 -4 -1 0 -2 0 -1 -4 -2 -1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 45 30 5 343 326 353 33 34 9 2 10 28 16 15 14 356 336 SST (C) 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.8 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.4 29.1 28.3 28.2 27.9 26.8 26.5 25.4 25.0 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 163 164 168 165 164 159 155 146 145 143 132 128 117 114 104 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.1 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -51.7 -51.4 -50.9 -50.4 -50.2 -49.8 -49.5 -49.4 -49.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.6 1.2 1.3 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 74 72 72 72 73 74 76 74 71 65 63 61 62 60 59 59 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 16 20 24 28 30 33 35 40 40 44 43 41 39 37 850 MB ENV VOR 15 6 -6 -10 -12 9 21 23 34 48 75 102 126 122 136 128 133 200 MB DIV 95 95 104 123 162 171 96 56 72 29 56 12 9 5 15 6 10 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -4 -4 -7 -7 -1 0 -1 0 0 -7 -6 -8 -10 -7 -2 LAND (KM) 871 849 835 828 824 823 842 909 846 832 874 910 947 1012 1122 1246 1415 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.5 10.0 10.6 11.2 12.4 13.6 14.7 16.1 17.0 17.6 18.5 19.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.4 102.3 103.2 104.3 105.5 108.0 110.1 112.0 113.6 114.9 116.2 117.7 119.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 13 14 13 11 10 9 8 8 9 10 9 10 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 17 21 27 23 24 32 31 20 22 14 12 7 3 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 62.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 12. 19. 26. 30. 32. 33. 34. 35. 34. 33. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 4. 7. 13. 18. 25. 28. 34. 31. 33. 29. 25. 20. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 12. 18. 17. 8. 0. -4. -8. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 18. 28. 44. 59. 65. 69. 67. 69. 64. 63. 58. 52. 46. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 9.0 101.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/24/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.83 8.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.53 4.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 59.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -6.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 115.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.73 4.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 2.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.23 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -39.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.32 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 50% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 70% is 11.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 50% is 10.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.9% 33.9% 24.4% 18.3% 14.2% 50.2% 69.9% 49.5% Logistic: 5.8% 31.9% 16.7% 8.4% 2.4% 19.6% 50.1% 45.3% Bayesian: 5.0% 38.1% 35.1% 14.0% 0.8% 9.5% 6.4% 24.5% Consensus: 7.6% 34.6% 25.4% 13.6% 5.8% 26.5% 42.1% 39.8% DTOPS: 29.0% 62.0% 59.0% 48.0% 28.0% 52.0% 88.0% 99.0% SDCON: 18.3% 48.3% 42.2% 30.8% 16.9% 39.2% 65.0% 69.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/24/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##