* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072026 07/25/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 53 60 69 79 94 103 107 106 102 98 96 91 85 80 77 71 V (KT) LAND 45 53 60 69 79 94 103 107 106 102 98 96 91 85 80 77 71 V (KT) LGEM 45 53 60 68 77 95 110 117 114 108 103 97 92 84 74 65 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 9 8 9 12 7 12 10 9 12 11 11 9 3 3 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 3 2 -1 -4 -2 -1 0 0 -3 -4 -6 -3 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 30 12 352 345 346 338 5 8 3 359 19 20 352 356 4 333 19 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.8 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.4 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.5 26.7 26.0 24.9 25.1 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 161 163 164 167 166 165 163 159 148 145 143 138 130 123 112 115 105 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -51.7 -52.4 -51.8 -52.0 -51.4 -51.5 -50.7 -50.6 -49.8 -49.9 -49.0 -49.5 -49.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.8 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 71 68 69 69 72 74 75 73 71 65 64 62 61 61 57 56 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 21 24 26 29 33 35 37 38 41 42 41 39 37 32 850 MB ENV VOR 5 -6 -6 -10 -5 5 18 23 28 53 81 100 118 116 117 115 107 200 MB DIV 113 118 135 160 159 118 99 75 34 38 47 -1 28 6 10 -7 5 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -7 -8 -5 -2 1 0 4 0 -3 -5 -4 -5 -5 -6 4 LAND (KM) 874 855 845 839 820 845 893 900 848 859 908 939 997 1069 1178 1318 1498 LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.8 10.4 11.1 11.7 12.8 14.0 15.3 16.5 17.4 18.1 18.8 19.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.1 103.2 104.3 105.5 106.7 109.0 111.2 112.9 114.4 115.8 117.1 118.5 120.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 13 13 12 12 10 9 8 7 8 9 10 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 21 27 25 24 36 35 31 24 16 12 10 5 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 72.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 7. 12. 18. 23. 25. 26. 26. 27. 26. 25. 24. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 19. 24. 27. 27. 29. 27. 23. 20. 16. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 10. 14. 22. 20. 10. 1. -5. -10. -13. -15. -15. -15. -15. -14. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 15. 24. 34. 49. 58. 62. 61. 57. 53. 51. 46. 40. 35. 32. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 9.2 102.1 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/25/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.76 17.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 11.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.57 10.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 101.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -13.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 137.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.84 12.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 9.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 6.8 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 30.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.28 3.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 3.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -40.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.33 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 66% is 5.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 61% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 57% is 9.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 9.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 85% is 12.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 80% is 13.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 53% is 11.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 26.3% 66.1% 60.8% 56.6% 41.3% 85.2% 80.0% 53.2% Logistic: 16.8% 52.3% 39.0% 27.0% 11.6% 28.3% 33.0% 26.5% Bayesian: 12.6% 42.9% 47.8% 26.8% 1.7% 29.0% 24.7% 12.5% Consensus: 18.6% 53.8% 49.2% 36.8% 18.2% 47.5% 45.9% 30.7% DTOPS: 38.0% 73.0% 62.0% 52.0% 37.0% 68.0% 89.0% 77.0% SDCON: 28.3% 63.4% 55.6% 44.4% 27.6% 57.7% 67.4% 53.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/25/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##