* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072026 07/25/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 58 67 74 91 101 104 103 101 95 95 87 82 76 73 67 V (KT) LAND 45 51 58 67 74 91 101 104 103 101 95 95 87 82 76 73 67 V (KT) LGEM 45 51 56 62 69 84 100 110 109 104 99 91 83 75 66 59 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 13 9 8 8 7 10 12 12 11 8 6 2 4 3 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 3 0 -2 -5 -3 -1 -1 2 0 -4 -2 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 6 328 326 338 326 353 332 5 4 358 18 360 349 252 257 132 99 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.5 29.2 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.1 26.3 25.3 25.1 24.1 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 162 164 166 168 165 164 160 156 147 146 144 134 127 117 115 104 107 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -51.8 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -51.6 -51.4 -51.0 -50.7 -50.4 -50.0 -49.6 -49.5 -49.9 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.0 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 70 70 69 72 72 75 73 74 68 67 63 63 59 59 56 57 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 22 23 27 30 32 35 38 38 42 39 39 35 34 30 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -9 -15 -13 -9 6 6 20 26 60 78 98 99 108 101 102 94 200 MB DIV 110 116 146 123 129 99 76 38 12 62 19 -5 2 32 -28 0 -12 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -7 -3 -3 -2 0 2 1 0 -6 -5 -5 -4 -3 -1 1 LAND (KM) 857 851 852 835 832 856 892 857 834 866 928 990 1063 1139 1269 1447 1598 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 10.3 10.8 11.5 12.1 13.2 14.6 15.9 16.9 17.7 18.3 19.0 19.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.0 104.1 105.2 106.5 107.7 109.8 111.7 113.4 114.8 116.2 117.7 119.4 121.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 14 13 11 11 9 8 8 8 9 10 11 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 26 28 23 34 27 31 24 23 15 13 9 4 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 70.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 17. 21. 24. 25. 25. 25. 25. 24. 22. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 12. 18. 24. 28. 26. 31. 24. 21. 16. 13. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 14. 21. 19. 10. 1. -5. -9. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 22. 30. 46. 56. 59. 58. 56. 50. 50. 42. 37. 31. 28. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 9.7 103.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/25/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.76 14.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 8.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.53 8.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 102.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -10.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 124.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.78 9.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 7.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 6.3 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 31.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.29 2.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 2.6 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -63.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.63 -0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 62% is 4.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 72% is 10.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 77% is 13.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 53% is 11.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.5% 61.6% 47.7% 42.4% 26.9% 71.6% 77.5% 52.5% Logistic: 20.1% 58.2% 43.0% 29.3% 12.4% 30.8% 29.5% 19.9% Bayesian: 20.4% 64.0% 68.1% 40.2% 8.2% 53.2% 49.3% 12.9% Consensus: 18.3% 61.3% 53.0% 37.3% 15.8% 51.9% 52.1% 28.4% DTOPS: 11.0% 65.0% 52.0% 46.0% 37.0% 77.0% 95.0% 93.0% SDCON: 14.6% 63.1% 52.5% 41.6% 26.4% 64.4% 73.5% 60.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/25/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##