* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072026 07/25/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 62 69 76 88 95 99 95 92 91 86 82 76 71 66 61 V (KT) LAND 50 55 62 69 76 88 95 99 95 92 91 86 82 76 71 66 61 V (KT) LGEM 50 54 58 62 67 77 88 96 99 97 92 86 78 71 62 54 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 18 13 15 14 5 12 12 15 13 8 3 2 2 9 7 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 -2 -1 0 -3 -2 0 0 -2 0 3 4 -2 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 314 313 327 322 327 327 355 351 355 358 5 125 188 210 15 300 304 SST (C) 29.5 29.9 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.0 29.6 29.2 28.9 28.4 27.7 26.9 26.7 25.0 24.4 24.4 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 160 165 168 168 168 166 161 156 153 148 141 133 131 114 108 107 105 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.2 -51.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.0 -52.2 -51.1 -51.4 -50.7 -50.8 -49.8 -50.3 -49.8 -50.2 -50.2 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.1 1.7 1.2 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 67 68 71 72 73 76 72 73 70 68 64 63 61 57 57 56 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 23 24 25 27 29 34 34 36 38 38 37 35 32 28 26 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -22 -16 -16 -14 -5 3 3 21 45 59 77 77 80 76 71 45 200 MB DIV 112 125 142 125 117 96 74 42 52 57 16 26 -3 9 -15 21 -24 700-850 TADV -7 -6 -3 0 -2 2 1 6 2 0 -3 -1 -1 -6 -1 4 5 LAND (KM) 808 799 783 775 792 800 851 786 788 838 908 990 1038 1156 1336 1527 1601 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 11.1 11.7 12.3 12.9 14.2 15.5 16.7 17.5 18.3 19.0 19.8 20.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.7 104.8 105.8 107.0 108.2 110.2 112.0 113.6 114.9 116.4 118.3 120.1 121.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 13 13 11 10 8 8 9 9 10 10 12 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 28 21 28 40 42 30 26 25 17 12 6 4 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 65.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 20. 20. 20. 20. 19. 17. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 10. 18. 20. 23. 25. 23. 20. 16. 12. 8. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 18. 9. 1. -5. -9. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 12. 19. 26. 38. 45. 50. 45. 42. 41. 36. 32. 26. 21. 16. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 10.5 103.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/25/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.73 13.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 6.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.43 6.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 111.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -10.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 124.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.77 9.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 9.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 7.2 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 36.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.33 3.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 2.6 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -71.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.75 -0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 64% is 5.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 62% is 9.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 66% is 11.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 41% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.0% 64.1% 46.7% 39.1% 24.9% 61.8% 65.6% 41.3% Logistic: 11.2% 33.5% 18.1% 9.7% 6.1% 11.4% 10.7% 7.1% Bayesian: 8.3% 39.4% 38.0% 12.8% 6.0% 28.9% 31.0% 11.4% Consensus: 11.2% 45.7% 34.3% 20.5% 12.3% 34.0% 35.8% 19.9% DTOPS: 29.0% 56.0% 40.0% 27.0% 13.0% 75.0% 86.0% 9.0% SDCON: 20.1% 50.8% 37.1% 23.7% 12.6% 54.5% 60.9% 14.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/25/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##