* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072026 07/25/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 70 79 87 99 104 99 101 92 89 82 77 68 64 59 53 V (KT) LAND 55 62 70 79 87 99 104 99 101 92 89 82 77 68 64 59 53 V (KT) LGEM 55 61 67 73 79 92 102 108 106 101 93 84 74 64 57 51 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 14 14 9 10 9 14 13 13 10 9 1 5 8 5 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -4 -4 1 0 -1 1 -3 -2 1 1 1 0 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 315 324 310 318 330 319 338 350 354 359 347 347 67 299 314 239 254 SST (C) 30.0 30.2 30.1 30.2 30.1 29.8 29.5 28.7 28.6 28.1 27.2 26.8 25.3 25.3 24.6 25.1 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 166 168 167 168 167 163 160 151 150 145 136 132 117 117 110 115 88 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.9 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.2 -51.6 -51.4 -51.1 -50.8 -50.4 -50.3 -49.8 -49.5 -49.8 -50.0 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.1 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 70 71 71 73 73 72 73 70 68 62 61 58 56 54 53 51 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 24 25 26 28 30 29 36 35 38 37 35 31 29 25 23 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -17 -15 -12 -10 -14 1 9 37 44 64 73 85 79 87 72 56 200 MB DIV 107 136 130 108 87 58 55 35 60 8 16 -5 2 -27 -14 -1 -7 700-850 TADV -4 -2 0 -2 0 0 5 6 0 -3 -6 -5 -6 -3 1 7 1 LAND (KM) 808 796 796 803 803 829 816 798 835 899 976 1074 1169 1327 1527 1653 1727 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.8 12.3 12.9 13.5 14.9 16.1 17.1 18.0 18.7 19.3 20.0 21.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.1 106.3 107.4 108.4 109.4 111.2 112.9 114.5 116.1 117.8 119.5 121.5 123.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 11 11 9 9 9 9 9 11 12 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 23 35 38 40 31 31 24 17 14 8 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 74.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 16. 15. 15. 14. 12. 10. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 24. 22. 25. 22. 19. 13. 9. 5. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 6. 10. 15. 23. 21. 10. 1. -6. -10. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 15. 24. 32. 44. 49. 44. 46. 37. 34. 27. 22. 13. 9. 4. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 11.2 105.1 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/25/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.69 19.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 12.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.56 13.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 108.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -15.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 113.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.72 12.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 16.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 12.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 38.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.35 5.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 3.9 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -65.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.66 -0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 38% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 85% is 6.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 78% is 9.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 72% is 11.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 57% is 13.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 74% is 11.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 62% is 10.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 37.7% 85.4% 78.0% 72.0% 56.5% 74.3% 62.4% 20.8% Logistic: 15.2% 41.5% 23.4% 14.3% 12.7% 13.7% 10.3% 6.2% Bayesian: 19.2% 66.5% 61.8% 44.2% 12.6% 43.5% 24.1% 3.0% Consensus: 24.0% 64.5% 54.4% 43.5% 27.3% 43.8% 32.2% 10.0% DTOPS: 26.0% 82.0% 81.0% 86.0% 70.0% 88.0% 87.0% 10.0% SDCON: 25.0% 73.2% 67.7% 64.7% 48.6% 65.9% 59.6% 10.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/25/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##