* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072026 07/26/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 74 82 90 98 105 107 103 98 91 89 79 75 67 61 56 51 V (KT) LAND 65 74 82 90 98 105 107 103 98 91 89 79 75 67 61 56 51 V (KT) LGEM 65 73 81 88 94 103 109 109 105 98 90 82 74 64 56 50 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 14 13 13 9 8 12 14 12 10 7 2 8 5 11 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -3 -1 0 3 3 0 -1 0 3 3 0 -1 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 313 300 322 325 305 322 337 355 353 358 354 344 10 6 350 313 310 SST (C) 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.1 29.7 29.3 28.8 28.5 28.0 27.2 26.9 25.7 25.0 24.7 24.5 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 168 168 166 162 157 152 149 143 135 133 121 114 111 109 92 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 -51.2 -51.5 -50.8 -50.8 -50.1 -50.4 -49.8 -50.2 -50.2 -50.5 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 70 70 72 73 75 73 74 70 68 64 63 62 58 57 54 51 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 25 25 27 29 28 30 32 34 34 37 34 33 29 25 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -16 -15 -12 -10 -8 -1 8 26 32 43 49 54 45 41 18 16 200 MB DIV 143 143 107 101 71 45 33 27 63 -11 36 0 12 -35 -14 -5 0 700-850 TADV -4 -1 0 2 4 2 8 1 2 -3 -2 -6 -9 -3 7 0 9 LAND (KM) 785 776 788 789 808 861 802 790 845 904 983 1061 1123 1258 1450 1605 1678 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.4 13.0 13.6 14.1 15.3 16.4 17.4 18.2 18.8 19.2 20.0 21.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.1 107.2 108.3 109.3 110.2 111.9 113.3 114.8 116.4 118.0 119.5 121.3 123.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 11 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 10 11 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 33 38 42 31 31 26 24 17 12 8 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 71.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 10. 11. 10. 9. 7. 6. 5. 2. 0. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 8. 12. 17. 17. 20. 14. 12. 7. 2. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 10. 14. 22. 20. 10. 1. -5. -10. -13. -15. -15. -15. -15. -14. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 9. 17. 25. 33. 40. 42. 38. 33. 26. 24. 14. 10. 2. -4. -9. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 11.8 106.1 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/26/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.61 17.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 14.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.59 14.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 125.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -16.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 113.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.72 13.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 16.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 13.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 39.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.36 5.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 4.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -69.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.72 -0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 71% is 11.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 87% is 7.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 83% is 9.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 81% is 13.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 68% is 16.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 61% is 9.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 71.3% 87.2% 83.2% 81.3% 68.1% 60.9% 34.1% 15.1% Logistic: 35.9% 53.9% 33.2% 23.9% 24.7% 19.1% 7.8% 3.6% Bayesian: 59.9% 83.5% 84.5% 76.8% 42.1% 53.0% 12.2% 0.6% Consensus: 55.7% 74.8% 67.0% 60.7% 45.0% 44.3% 18.0% 6.4% DTOPS: 82.0% 77.0% 69.0% 71.0% 55.0% 65.0% 65.0% 3.0% SDCON: 68.8% 75.9% 68.0% 65.8% 50.0% 54.6% 41.5% 4.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/26/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##