* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072026 07/26/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 90 98 105 109 115 113 105 101 92 86 80 72 64 58 53 48 V (KT) LAND 80 90 98 105 109 115 113 105 101 92 86 80 72 64 58 53 48 V (KT) LGEM 80 91 100 107 111 114 113 111 105 96 86 77 68 61 53 47 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 13 11 11 9 11 10 14 12 8 5 4 8 7 8 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -4 -1 0 1 1 1 -1 -1 0 0 1 -3 -1 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 304 322 319 305 304 322 344 348 336 337 356 36 298 313 302 293 259 SST (C) 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.0 29.7 29.4 28.8 28.6 28.1 27.2 27.0 25.8 25.0 24.4 24.6 23.2 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 169 168 167 165 162 159 152 150 145 135 134 122 114 108 110 95 93 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.5 -51.2 -50.8 -50.4 -50.3 -50.2 -50.0 -50.3 -50.6 -50.8 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.4 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 72 74 75 76 72 74 69 67 64 64 62 61 57 55 53 53 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 26 28 28 30 32 32 36 35 34 34 31 27 25 22 20 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -10 -8 -15 -20 2 3 20 23 35 36 53 44 48 44 29 14 200 MB DIV 147 112 98 88 50 42 37 39 12 16 -10 20 -12 -15 0 -4 0 700-850 TADV -1 1 0 5 4 7 2 0 -2 -3 -4 -8 -2 5 13 7 10 LAND (KM) 780 780 787 815 854 818 786 828 855 937 1052 1144 1250 1434 1610 1701 1799 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.3 14.0 14.5 15.0 16.2 17.3 17.9 18.9 19.4 19.8 20.5 21.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.6 108.7 109.8 110.7 111.6 113.2 114.6 115.9 117.4 119.1 120.9 123.0 125.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 11 10 10 9 7 8 8 9 10 11 13 13 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 39 38 30 30 28 24 17 14 11 5 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 15 CX,CY: -12/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 60.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 2. -0. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. -17. -21. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 17. 15. 14. 12. 7. 3. 0. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 12. 18. 16. 8. 0. -4. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 10. 18. 25. 29. 35. 33. 25. 21. 12. 6. -0. -8. -16. -21. -27. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 12.6 107.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/26/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.47 11.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 15.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.61 12.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 147.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 -12.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.65 9.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 10.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 10.9 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 37.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.34 4.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 3.4 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -70.9 -15.6 to -90.4 0.74 -0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 76% is 12.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 71% is 5.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 64% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 60% is 9.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 10.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 75.5% 70.9% 63.9% 60.1% 45.5% 33.7% 18.2% 11.6% Logistic: 32.1% 35.4% 20.2% 12.9% 11.3% 8.2% 4.9% 1.8% Bayesian: 80.5% 62.4% 66.4% 60.8% 12.1% 5.6% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 62.7% 56.2% 50.1% 44.6% 23.0% 15.8% 7.8% 4.5% DTOPS: 83.0% 91.0% 95.0% 97.0% 91.0% 80.0% 28.0% 0.0% SDCON: 72.8% 73.6% 72.5% 70.8% 57.0% 47.9% 17.9% 2.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/26/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##