* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072026 07/26/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 111 117 119 119 114 107 104 95 93 86 77 69 62 58 53 50 V (KT) LAND 100 111 117 119 119 114 107 104 95 93 86 77 69 62 58 53 50 V (KT) LGEM 100 112 120 122 120 114 108 100 92 84 75 67 60 53 47 42 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 11 12 12 8 16 17 13 9 9 5 9 6 10 10 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 0 0 3 1 -1 0 -1 -3 5 -2 0 0 4 5 SHEAR DIR 318 313 314 314 334 328 358 342 356 19 21 354 327 283 254 258 248 SST (C) 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.5 28.7 28.7 28.2 27.5 26.9 25.9 25.0 25.1 24.4 24.1 23.2 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 167 166 165 162 160 151 151 146 138 133 122 114 115 108 105 96 97 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -52.0 -51.3 -51.3 -50.6 -50.7 -50.0 -50.1 -49.6 -50.0 -50.1 -50.3 -50.4 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.6 1.1 1.2 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 74 75 75 71 72 72 68 65 62 59 58 53 53 52 53 51 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 27 29 29 30 30 32 36 35 36 34 31 28 26 24 22 21 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -4 -7 -13 -8 0 21 38 42 58 68 70 67 68 46 44 49 200 MB DIV 100 96 83 62 20 39 17 33 4 15 2 18 -18 7 7 21 -16 700-850 TADV 0 3 3 1 1 6 1 3 -4 -3 -6 -4 1 14 6 7 11 LAND (KM) 795 815 854 890 886 833 859 906 976 1066 1122 1232 1432 1618 1692 1828 1785 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.8 14.3 14.9 15.4 16.6 17.4 18.2 18.7 19.3 20.2 21.0 21.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.8 109.9 111.0 111.9 112.8 114.3 115.8 117.2 118.9 120.6 122.4 124.6 127.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 10 10 9 8 8 8 9 10 13 13 12 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 37 29 32 23 24 17 15 12 7 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 2. -3. -9. -15. -20. -24. -29. -32. -36. -39. -44. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 9. 12. 12. 10. 6. 2. -2. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 3. 5. 4. 7. 15. 14. 16. 13. 8. 4. 2. -1. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 11. 17. 19. 19. 14. 7. 4. -5. -7. -14. -23. -31. -38. -42. -47. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 13.2 108.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/26/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.29 3.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 35.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.86 9.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.57 6.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 201.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.68 -6.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.52 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 5.6 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 32.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.30 2.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -69.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.72 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 62% is 9.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 62.0% 37.1% 30.1% 23.6% 15.1% 20.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 49.7% 39.7% 23.1% 17.8% 13.8% 5.9% 1.2% 0.4% Bayesian: 49.7% 24.7% 14.2% 8.3% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 53.8% 33.8% 22.5% 16.6% 10.1% 8.7% 0.4% 0.1% DTOPS: 76.0% 46.0% 43.0% 40.0% 15.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 64.9% 39.9% 32.7% 28.3% 12.5% 6.8% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/26/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##