* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072026 07/26/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 124 126 125 121 110 100 95 92 88 83 76 67 62 57 53 49 V (KT) LAND 115 124 126 125 121 110 100 95 92 88 83 76 67 62 57 53 49 V (KT) LGEM 115 124 126 124 119 107 99 91 83 76 68 61 55 49 44 39 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 11 13 10 13 10 15 9 5 7 2 6 5 9 11 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 0 1 3 5 0 2 0 0 4 -2 -1 -2 2 4 SHEAR DIR 306 299 304 321 323 345 349 338 360 351 42 21 318 294 252 236 221 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 29.8 29.5 29.3 28.6 28.6 28.0 27.3 26.7 25.1 25.3 24.8 25.3 23.1 23.1 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 163 160 158 150 150 144 136 131 115 117 112 118 94 94 98 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.8 -52.3 -52.3 -51.8 -51.4 -51.1 -50.7 -50.3 -50.2 -50.1 -49.7 -50.1 -50.1 -50.4 -50.4 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.8 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 2 2 1 1 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 75 74 70 71 70 67 65 62 62 57 55 52 50 49 50 48 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 28 30 31 33 33 34 36 33 32 30 26 24 21 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -6 -14 -12 -9 -2 24 26 33 40 66 68 61 61 57 51 47 200 MB DIV 95 89 77 36 35 21 36 17 11 -14 18 -11 -12 -9 15 5 14 700-850 TADV 4 5 4 4 5 2 3 0 -6 -4 -12 0 6 12 12 13 10 LAND (KM) 828 846 876 890 863 843 874 943 1005 1097 1198 1335 1516 1680 1779 1923 1689 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.2 14.7 15.3 15.8 16.8 17.6 18.2 18.7 19.5 20.4 21.3 21.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.9 110.7 111.6 112.5 113.3 114.8 116.2 117.8 119.3 121.2 123.6 126.1 128.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 9 11 12 12 13 14 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 31 30 26 22 25 16 15 11 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. -3. -11. -19. -27. -33. -39. -45. -49. -52. -56. -61. -67. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -7. -6. -3. -0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 9. 12. 12. 10. 5. 0. -4. -7. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 9. 7. 4. -1. -3. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 9. 11. 10. 6. -5. -15. -20. -23. -27. -32. -39. -48. -53. -58. -62. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 13.6 109.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/26/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.15 1.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 35.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.86 6.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.53 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 298.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.57 -3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.49 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 3.9 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 30.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.28 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -65.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.66 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 42% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 42.4% 21.8% 18.8% 15.9% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 13.7% 5.4% 2.6% 1.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 30.6% 4.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 28.9% 10.5% 7.2% 5.9% 4.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 26.0% 22.0% 15.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 27.4% 16.2% 11.1% 4.4% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/26/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##