* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072026 07/27/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 136 136 131 124 111 103 91 89 86 76 68 61 55 50 45 43 V (KT) LAND 130 136 136 131 124 111 103 91 89 86 76 68 61 55 50 45 43 V (KT) LGEM 130 135 132 127 120 108 98 89 80 72 64 57 51 45 39 34 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 8 9 10 9 13 13 6 6 7 11 6 9 10 16 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 3 5 1 1 0 -1 2 0 -1 2 5 3 2 SHEAR DIR 288 298 304 302 315 348 338 344 29 50 35 356 287 280 234 245 226 SST (C) 30.0 29.8 29.5 29.3 28.8 28.7 28.3 27.5 26.9 25.6 25.0 24.9 24.4 24.1 23.1 22.8 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 166 163 160 158 152 151 146 138 133 120 114 113 108 105 94 91 94 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.2 -52.2 -51.8 -51.2 -51.3 -50.7 -50.6 -49.7 -50.1 -49.6 -50.2 -50.1 -50.5 -50.6 -50.8 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.8 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 0 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 74 70 71 71 70 66 64 60 59 55 51 51 51 51 48 47 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 30 30 29 31 35 33 34 34 31 29 26 23 21 20 17 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -6 -7 -6 -9 16 31 21 43 64 69 57 62 54 57 45 34 200 MB DIV 87 84 54 27 27 21 33 -3 24 -1 13 -14 9 14 8 0 -4 700-850 TADV 6 5 5 7 8 1 6 -4 -3 -6 -7 0 12 10 13 14 10 LAND (KM) 831 866 868 832 808 844 915 946 1066 1152 1256 1412 1627 1721 1829 1820 1595 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 15.0 15.5 16.2 16.8 17.5 18.1 18.8 19.3 20.1 21.0 21.9 22.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.8 111.7 112.6 113.4 114.2 115.7 117.2 118.6 120.6 122.7 124.9 127.4 130.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 9 8 8 9 10 11 12 13 13 14 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 30 26 24 25 17 16 12 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -3. -10. -21. -31. -41. -49. -57. -64. -68. -72. -77. -82. -88. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 8. 10. 10. 7. 3. -1. -6. -8. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -8. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 2. 6. 5. 8. 7. 2. -1. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 6. 1. -6. -19. -27. -39. -41. -44. -54. -62. -69. -75. -80. -85. -87. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 14.4 110.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/27/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.79 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.57 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 375.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.48 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.44 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.03 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 27.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.25 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -69.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.72 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.8% 16.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.3% 3.2% 1.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 7.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.7% 6.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 6.8% 3.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/27/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##