* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072026 07/27/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 140 144 142 134 128 112 99 92 86 81 72 61 55 49 44 39 38 V (KT) LAND 140 144 142 134 128 112 99 92 86 81 72 61 55 49 44 39 38 V (KT) LGEM 140 142 137 130 121 106 93 81 71 63 56 49 42 38 33 28 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 11 11 13 11 16 5 5 7 4 6 7 9 16 18 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 3 5 2 3 0 0 2 -1 -2 4 6 2 1 SHEAR DIR 302 318 311 309 338 326 336 319 21 50 360 350 262 244 210 207 202 SST (C) 29.8 29.5 29.4 28.9 28.9 28.5 27.9 26.9 26.6 25.2 25.1 24.4 24.9 22.6 22.8 22.7 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 163 160 159 153 153 148 143 133 130 116 115 108 113 89 91 89 88 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -51.8 -51.1 -51.2 -51.1 -50.8 -50.4 -50.2 -50.1 -49.8 -50.3 -50.4 -50.7 -51.0 -51.2 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 71 72 69 70 67 66 61 60 57 55 52 51 52 51 48 46 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 30 29 31 32 33 34 32 31 29 26 23 21 19 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -7 -7 -13 -4 6 9 22 32 54 51 48 45 42 44 34 6 200 MB DIV 86 68 50 31 21 45 8 1 -8 19 3 -16 -1 10 7 17 0 700-850 TADV 2 6 5 5 3 9 0 7 0 -10 -5 0 5 14 11 17 16 LAND (KM) 857 839 802 793 797 859 916 976 1059 1169 1318 1503 1629 1726 1864 1789 1691 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.8 16.4 16.9 17.4 17.9 18.5 19.3 20.1 20.9 21.7 22.4 23.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.7 112.5 113.3 114.1 114.9 116.3 117.8 119.5 121.4 123.7 126.2 128.7 131.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 8 8 9 11 12 12 12 12 13 12 10 7 HEAT CONTENT 26 25 25 19 17 14 7 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -17. -29. -41. -52. -62. -71. -78. -83. -88. -93. -99. -104. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -6. -2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 7. 9. 8. 6. 2. -2. -6. -8. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -9. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 6. 8. 6. 6. 2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 2. -6. -12. -28. -41. -48. -54. -59. -68. -79. -85. -91. -96. -101. -102. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 140. LAT, LON: 15.1 111.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/27/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.52 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 500.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.34 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.41 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 140.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.23 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -70.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.73 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.7% 2.6% 1.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/27/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##