* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072026 07/27/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 135 132 126 121 115 105 93 90 84 75 67 59 52 47 43 40 39 V (KT) LAND 135 132 126 121 115 105 93 90 84 75 67 59 52 47 43 40 39 V (KT) LGEM 135 131 123 115 109 97 87 78 70 61 55 48 42 36 32 29 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 10 9 8 12 13 7 6 7 7 4 10 13 15 22 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 5 5 2 0 0 0 0 -3 0 -1 2 6 2 -2 SHEAR DIR 313 309 308 325 342 336 338 336 60 60 15 321 280 250 242 212 220 SST (C) 29.5 29.1 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.1 27.2 26.8 25.6 24.7 24.5 24.4 23.5 23.2 22.7 22.7 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 160 156 151 152 151 144 135 132 120 111 109 108 99 95 90 90 90 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.8 -51.2 -51.3 -51.5 -50.9 -50.7 -50.1 -50.3 -49.6 -50.1 -50.1 -50.5 -50.8 -50.9 -51.2 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 71 69 69 68 68 65 60 57 54 51 51 49 50 49 48 46 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 27 29 29 32 30 32 31 28 27 23 20 19 17 15 16 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -10 -15 -5 7 16 12 28 46 60 55 53 37 36 17 4 -4 200 MB DIV 65 34 28 28 27 30 0 16 -16 13 -7 14 10 10 7 7 9 700-850 TADV 6 6 6 7 6 5 0 1 -4 -6 -4 9 8 13 12 19 14 LAND (KM) 851 823 810 822 843 912 960 1054 1121 1251 1433 1611 1694 1815 1819 1636 1484 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.3 16.9 17.3 17.7 18.2 18.9 19.6 20.5 21.3 22.0 22.8 23.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.7 113.6 114.4 115.2 115.9 117.3 118.9 120.7 122.7 125.1 127.7 130.3 133.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 8 8 9 10 11 12 13 13 13 13 13 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 25 23 16 16 16 12 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -17. -29. -40. -51. -61. -70. -77. -82. -87. -92. -97. -102. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -5. -1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 0. -0. 2. 1. 4. 3. -1. -3. -7. -10. -11. -12. -12. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -9. -14. -20. -30. -42. -45. -51. -60. -68. -76. -83. -88. -92. -95. -96. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 135. LAT, LON: 15.7 112.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/27/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.46 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 502.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.34 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.34 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 135.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 21.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.19 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -66.9 -15.6 to -90.4 0.69 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/27/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##