* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072026 07/27/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 122 117 112 106 96 88 84 80 71 61 55 50 45 41 39 35 V (KT) LAND 130 122 117 112 106 96 88 84 80 71 61 55 50 45 41 39 35 V (KT) LGEM 130 122 114 107 102 91 80 71 62 55 47 41 36 32 28 25 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 12 11 12 21 11 7 5 3 5 8 13 16 19 19 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 2 3 2 0 -1 0 -1 2 2 0 0 1 5 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 305 313 331 342 336 337 318 340 29 26 358 246 258 229 229 220 214 SST (C) 29.1 28.8 28.9 28.7 28.3 27.6 26.8 26.3 24.9 24.6 24.4 24.8 22.8 22.4 22.7 23.0 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 156 152 153 151 146 139 131 127 113 110 108 112 91 87 90 93 91 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.4 -51.4 -51.3 -51.1 -50.8 -50.4 -50.3 -50.0 -49.9 -50.3 -50.3 -50.4 -50.6 -50.7 -50.6 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.6 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.3 1.1 1.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 5 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 70 70 67 68 66 62 59 55 54 51 49 49 50 49 49 42 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 28 30 31 30 34 33 32 31 29 25 23 20 19 17 16 13 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -7 -2 11 14 12 19 25 46 52 50 46 32 19 4 -17 -27 200 MB DIV 51 30 9 19 37 10 10 -2 -3 -5 10 14 8 3 16 -23 10 700-850 TADV 2 6 9 6 8 7 2 0 -8 -2 0 16 7 16 14 16 12 LAND (KM) 811 797 795 820 853 919 992 1080 1169 1327 1531 1640 1731 1864 1736 1569 1441 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 17.0 17.5 17.9 18.2 18.7 19.3 20.1 21.1 22.0 22.6 23.5 24.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.5 114.3 115.0 115.8 116.5 118.1 119.7 121.7 123.9 126.5 129.1 131.8 134.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 8 9 11 12 13 13 13 13 12 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 24 17 18 16 11 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 140 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -16. -28. -39. -50. -60. -68. -75. -81. -87. -91. -96. -101. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -9. -12. -11. -7. -2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 11. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -5. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -13. -18. -24. -34. -42. -46. -50. -59. -69. -75. -80. -85. -89. -91. -95. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 16.4 113.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/27/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.47 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 544.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.29 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.31 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.03 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 19.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.18 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -63.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.64 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/27/26 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##