* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072026 07/28/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 119 115 109 105 92 87 86 79 72 63 58 52 45 40 37 34 V (KT) LAND 125 119 115 109 105 92 87 86 79 72 63 58 52 45 40 37 34 V (KT) LGEM 125 118 112 106 99 86 75 67 60 53 47 43 38 33 29 25 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 12 12 17 13 6 6 6 2 7 11 12 15 20 24 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 4 5 1 1 2 0 2 -1 -3 -2 0 1 6 2 0 SHEAR DIR 316 345 341 325 320 318 314 18 71 37 242 263 227 232 215 214 197 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.7 28.3 27.9 27.1 26.8 25.5 25.0 24.7 24.6 23.2 23.0 22.6 22.9 22.8 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 151 147 142 134 132 119 114 111 110 96 93 89 92 90 95 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.3 -51.3 -51.1 -50.8 -50.7 -50.1 -50.2 -49.8 -50.2 -50.3 -50.7 -50.9 -51.1 -50.9 -50.5 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.3 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 1.2 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 2 2 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 68 65 66 65 64 61 57 54 50 50 46 44 44 45 45 43 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 31 29 32 31 31 32 29 27 23 22 19 17 15 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -3 1 14 17 8 27 43 59 50 52 37 28 10 7 -12 -27 200 MB DIV 39 12 10 19 25 6 6 -18 11 0 -9 0 15 1 31 1 4 700-850 TADV 7 9 4 10 11 3 0 -5 -7 -7 10 5 12 12 17 22 12 LAND (KM) 804 811 828 872 906 967 1063 1144 1284 1464 1626 1707 1817 1821 1629 1474 1349 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.4 17.8 18.1 18.4 18.9 19.6 20.5 21.3 22.1 22.9 23.9 25.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.3 115.1 115.8 116.7 117.5 119.0 120.8 123.0 125.5 128.1 130.7 133.3 136.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 9 8 8 10 12 12 13 13 13 13 12 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 16 12 10 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -16. -27. -38. -48. -57. -65. -72. -78. -84. -88. -93. -97. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -9. -12. -8. -4. -0. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 3. 4. 0. -3. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -16. -20. -33. -38. -39. -46. -53. -62. -67. -73. -80. -85. -88. -91. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 16.9 114.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/28/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.37 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 598.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.23 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.27 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.09 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 16.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.15 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -66.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.67 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/28/26 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 11 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##