* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072026 07/28/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 114 108 103 98 88 83 81 74 66 59 53 50 44 43 40 34 V (KT) LAND 120 114 108 103 98 88 83 81 74 66 59 53 50 44 43 40 34 V (KT) LGEM 120 113 107 101 94 81 71 62 55 49 44 39 34 30 27 23 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 11 12 16 10 5 3 3 6 9 13 16 21 26 19 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 4 3 0 0 0 5 0 1 -1 1 7 4 2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 338 347 342 328 335 334 309 357 10 319 253 261 232 225 218 207 227 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.3 28.0 27.7 26.9 26.2 25.0 25.1 24.6 25.4 23.8 23.4 23.2 23.3 23.4 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 147 143 141 132 126 114 115 109 118 101 98 95 96 96 95 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.4 -51.1 -50.7 -50.7 -50.5 -50.3 -50.3 -50.3 -50.8 -50.8 -51.0 -50.9 -51.0 -50.7 -51.5 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 64 66 64 63 61 58 55 53 50 49 48 48 49 48 39 38 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 30 30 31 32 30 30 31 27 25 22 20 19 15 16 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR -2 0 8 11 4 10 17 32 39 37 25 7 9 3 0 -16 -31 200 MB DIV 32 10 18 15 7 4 -11 -3 2 9 -2 3 -2 5 0 2 -11 700-850 TADV 8 3 7 8 8 2 3 -6 -5 -1 9 7 9 10 16 11 8 LAND (KM) 812 835 868 901 928 1014 1111 1230 1382 1569 1683 1788 1922 1704 1502 1382 1320 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.7 18.1 18.4 18.6 19.1 19.8 20.5 21.5 22.2 22.8 23.5 24.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.0 115.8 116.6 117.3 118.1 119.8 121.8 124.1 126.8 129.3 131.5 134.0 136.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 9 11 12 13 11 12 13 14 13 11 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 12 11 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -15. -26. -36. -45. -54. -62. -68. -74. -78. -83. -87. -91. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -5. -0. 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 1. -3. -7. -10. -13. -13. -15. -13. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -17. -22. -32. -37. -39. -46. -54. -61. -67. -70. -76. -77. -80. -86. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 17.3 115.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/28/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.40 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 654.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.17 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.24 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 14.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.13 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -64.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.65 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.6% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/28/26 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##