* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072026 07/28/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 104 99 94 91 84 80 76 69 64 58 53 48 44 43 40 36 V (KT) LAND 110 104 99 94 91 84 80 76 69 64 58 53 48 44 43 40 36 V (KT) LGEM 110 103 97 92 86 76 67 59 52 46 42 38 33 29 26 23 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 14 17 12 9 4 5 3 5 9 13 18 22 19 15 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 0 0 1 0 2 3 -2 0 0 3 2 3 -4 -5 -7 SHEAR DIR 347 327 326 334 331 312 284 94 325 309 293 241 240 223 219 219 231 SST (C) 28.7 28.4 28.2 27.7 27.3 26.9 25.7 25.1 24.9 24.4 25.2 23.8 23.2 22.9 23.0 23.3 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 148 146 140 136 133 121 115 113 108 116 102 96 91 92 94 94 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.2 -50.7 -50.7 -50.8 -50.3 -50.5 -49.9 -50.3 -50.4 -50.7 -50.8 -50.6 -50.4 -50.6 -51.2 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.8 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 67 65 63 61 60 56 54 51 50 48 49 47 50 47 45 40 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 31 30 31 33 32 30 28 25 23 21 19 16 14 15 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 1 10 10 2 0 13 22 31 30 28 13 12 17 4 -17 -30 -25 200 MB DIV 10 22 14 -3 5 17 -9 14 -9 12 4 14 1 -1 2 -1 11 700-850 TADV 1 7 6 6 3 4 -2 -6 -6 6 4 16 8 18 19 6 7 LAND (KM) 828 864 894 920 953 1061 1152 1279 1444 1633 1739 1874 1740 1549 1414 1322 1237 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.1 18.4 18.7 18.9 19.5 20.3 20.9 21.8 22.5 23.1 24.0 25.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.7 116.5 117.3 118.1 118.8 120.7 122.9 125.1 127.7 130.2 132.8 135.7 139.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 10 11 12 13 12 13 15 14 11 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 16 13 12 7 5 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -5. -12. -22. -31. -39. -47. -53. -60. -65. -70. -74. -79. -82. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -7. -3. 1. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 13. 14. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 1. -1. -7. -8. -12. -13. -16. -16. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -16. -19. -26. -30. -34. -41. -46. -52. -57. -62. -66. -67. -70. -74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 17.7 115.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/28/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.03 0.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.40 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 606.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.22 -0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.21 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 1.8 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 12.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.11 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -64.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.65 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 8.2% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 2.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.6% 1.4% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/28/26 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##