* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072026 07/28/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 98 93 90 85 78 75 70 65 58 52 47 41 39 36 32 28 V (KT) LAND 105 98 93 90 85 78 75 70 65 58 52 47 41 39 36 32 28 V (KT) LGEM 105 98 92 86 80 69 60 52 46 41 36 31 27 23 21 19 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 16 15 11 7 2 6 6 8 14 18 18 20 22 28 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 3 3 1 2 6 3 2 0 0 3 3 3 -3 -7 -3 SHEAR DIR 323 319 333 324 313 297 345 316 332 262 274 258 249 228 221 218 218 SST (C) 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.4 27.1 26.4 25.1 25.1 24.9 25.6 24.2 23.4 23.4 23.1 23.3 23.3 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 143 137 135 128 115 115 113 120 106 98 97 93 95 95 95 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.8 -50.9 -50.7 -50.4 -50.1 -49.8 -50.0 -50.9 -50.9 -51.1 -51.0 -50.8 -50.4 -50.8 -51.4 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.0 1.4 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 65 64 61 61 57 55 53 52 51 49 49 47 49 47 43 37 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 30 30 33 31 31 31 27 25 22 21 19 16 15 15 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 7 12 2 2 9 11 28 30 31 18 9 11 5 -5 -25 -31 -36 200 MB DIV 29 17 0 -4 11 -8 9 -20 32 11 1 -1 13 15 6 5 -1 700-850 TADV 6 9 7 3 0 1 -8 -7 0 9 7 10 9 14 12 8 6 LAND (KM) 875 919 952 987 1029 1120 1245 1390 1571 1722 1832 1869 1626 1469 1377 1305 1237 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.2 18.4 18.7 19.0 19.7 20.4 21.1 21.8 22.5 23.4 24.3 25.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.5 117.4 118.2 119.1 119.9 121.8 124.2 126.6 129.1 131.7 134.5 137.4 140.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 9 9 10 12 12 13 13 14 14 12 10 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 14 13 9 7 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -4. -11. -20. -29. -36. -43. -50. -56. -61. -66. -71. -75. -78. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 1. 1. 1. -3. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -15. -14. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -12. -15. -20. -27. -30. -35. -40. -47. -53. -58. -64. -66. -69. -73. -77. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 17.9 116.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/28/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.06 0.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.33 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 618.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.21 -1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.21 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 2.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 10.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.2 60.4 to 0.0 0.98 0.9 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -62.9 -15.6 to -90.4 0.63 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 8.3% 7.8% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 2.8% 2.6% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.5% 1.4% 1.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/28/26 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##