* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072026 07/29/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 112 108 102 96 85 75 68 61 55 47 39 37 34 32 29 25 V (KT) LAND 115 112 108 102 96 85 75 68 61 55 47 39 37 34 32 29 25 V (KT) LGEM 115 112 106 98 90 75 63 55 48 42 36 31 27 24 22 20 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 18 14 11 10 4 3 10 4 12 14 14 14 12 14 15 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 3 1 3 3 4 0 3 0 -1 0 3 0 -4 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 331 328 318 308 296 293 55 9 328 289 271 272 237 232 201 239 203 SST (C) 28.3 27.9 27.5 27.0 26.9 25.6 25.2 25.1 24.5 25.3 24.0 23.5 22.9 22.7 23.2 23.1 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 147 142 139 134 133 120 116 115 109 117 104 98 92 89 93 92 96 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.9 -50.8 -50.4 -49.9 -50.1 -49.6 -50.3 -50.8 -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -51.3 -51.2 -51.6 -52.7 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.7 1.1 1.4 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.3 0.7 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 65 61 60 59 56 55 52 51 48 49 50 53 55 53 50 45 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 30 33 32 31 30 28 26 25 22 20 17 17 15 15 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 8 0 -3 8 12 13 23 23 19 -4 -5 -12 -16 -32 -48 -57 -38 200 MB DIV 20 0 -1 22 17 -10 7 -8 14 11 -3 10 31 7 1 19 -1 700-850 TADV 10 10 2 -1 0 -2 -2 -7 5 14 14 4 14 14 1 5 -1 LAND (KM) 906 934 969 1014 1067 1167 1302 1462 1661 1761 1904 1766 1580 1462 1381 1325 1272 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.5 18.7 19.1 19.4 20.1 20.8 21.5 22.2 23.0 23.8 24.8 25.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.2 118.0 118.8 119.8 120.7 122.9 125.3 127.7 130.3 133.0 135.9 138.6 141.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 11 12 12 13 13 14 13 11 10 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 13 9 7 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -17. -28. -38. -46. -54. -62. -69. -75. -80. -85. -89. -93. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -7. -8. -7. -2. 1. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -7. -11. -13. -16. -15. -15. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -13. -19. -30. -40. -47. -54. -60. -68. -76. -78. -81. -83. -86. -90. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 18.2 117.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/29/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.34 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 722.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.09 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.22 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 8.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.07 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.7 60.4 to 0.0 0.96 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -63.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.64 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/29/26 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##