* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072026 07/29/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 105 99 91 85 75 64 56 50 43 38 34 32 28 26 22 16 V (KT) LAND 110 105 99 91 85 75 64 56 50 43 38 34 32 28 26 22 16 V (KT) LGEM 110 105 98 89 81 66 54 46 39 35 30 26 23 21 20 18 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 16 17 18 11 4 10 11 11 14 16 18 16 17 25 20 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 0 1 2 4 0 2 -1 2 4 -1 -2 -4 -2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 328 317 306 298 299 49 4 28 278 282 255 246 249 261 255 222 201 SST (C) 28.0 27.5 27.1 26.9 26.3 25.1 25.2 24.9 25.8 24.4 23.5 23.5 23.2 23.5 23.2 22.9 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 144 138 135 133 127 115 116 113 123 108 99 98 95 97 94 90 89 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.7 -50.5 -50.3 -50.4 -50.3 -50.3 -51.0 -51.0 -51.2 -50.9 -50.9 -51.0 -51.6 -52.1 -53.3 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.4 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.4 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 4 2 2 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 61 61 59 58 57 54 52 52 51 53 56 58 55 54 49 49 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 32 32 31 30 30 26 24 22 20 19 18 17 15 14 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -4 0 3 3 22 21 10 3 -8 -7 -8 -16 -36 -44 -46 -53 200 MB DIV 11 -18 5 7 0 18 -11 20 6 20 7 -5 11 3 21 32 20 700-850 TADV 7 6 4 6 4 -2 -3 3 10 11 12 11 8 3 15 9 12 LAND (KM) 947 980 1021 1086 1135 1268 1399 1580 1740 1877 1834 1599 1418 1337 1342 1401 1517 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.6 18.9 19.3 19.6 20.3 21.1 21.8 22.5 23.2 24.1 25.0 25.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.0 118.9 119.7 120.8 121.9 124.4 126.7 129.2 132.0 134.9 137.7 140.4 142.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 12 12 12 13 14 13 13 13 11 9 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 10 8 5 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -17. -26. -36. -43. -51. -58. -65. -71. -76. -80. -85. -89. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -9. -10. -8. -5. -2. 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -4. -8. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. -16. -15. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -19. -25. -35. -46. -54. -60. -67. -72. -76. -78. -82. -84. -88. -94. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 18.3 118.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/29/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.28 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 724.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.09 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.17 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 6.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.06 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 60.4 to 0.0 0.99 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -65.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.66 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.9% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/29/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##