* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072026 07/29/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 91 83 75 71 64 56 51 47 40 34 33 31 28 24 20 17 V (KT) LAND 100 91 83 75 71 64 56 51 47 40 34 33 31 28 24 20 17 V (KT) LGEM 100 91 83 76 69 57 48 42 37 32 28 25 22 20 18 16 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 19 15 8 5 7 3 10 11 15 17 12 14 19 18 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 0 -1 2 3 -2 0 -1 4 3 2 -4 -1 3 1 3 SHEAR DIR 322 307 291 294 287 60 16 50 281 247 246 222 245 246 272 231 210 SST (C) 27.7 27.1 27.0 26.2 25.5 25.2 25.1 24.8 25.1 23.8 23.8 23.1 23.5 23.3 22.7 22.8 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 141 135 134 126 119 116 115 112 116 102 102 94 97 94 89 90 90 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.6 -50.3 -50.6 -50.7 -50.2 -51.0 -51.0 -51.3 -51.2 -51.0 -51.1 -51.4 -52.3 -53.3 -54.1 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.4 1.2 0.6 0.0 0.4 0.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 61 58 57 56 56 53 51 49 49 53 55 54 51 48 50 50 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 29 29 27 27 27 23 22 20 19 16 17 16 14 12 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR -8 0 0 5 9 22 19 15 -6 -1 -4 -2 -15 -34 -49 -64 -68 200 MB DIV -22 -8 3 0 -4 15 -4 13 9 7 11 16 12 18 7 8 23 700-850 TADV 4 1 3 3 0 -2 -4 5 5 18 10 18 13 12 13 15 16 LAND (KM) 970 1025 1089 1139 1190 1333 1506 1690 1815 1937 1698 1498 1362 1344 1420 1505 1598 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.9 19.2 19.6 20.0 20.7 21.5 22.2 23.0 23.8 24.8 25.7 26.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.7 119.8 120.8 122.0 123.1 125.6 128.2 130.7 133.8 136.6 139.3 141.8 143.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 12 12 13 13 13 14 14 13 11 9 8 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 8 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -6. -14. -22. -30. -36. -44. -51. -58. -64. -69. -73. -77. -81. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -7. -8. -5. -2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -7. -10. -14. -17. -19. -16. -16. -17. -18. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -17. -25. -29. -36. -44. -49. -53. -60. -66. -67. -69. -72. -76. -80. -83. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 18.6 118.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/29/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.01 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.35 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 670.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.15 -0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.13 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 1.2 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 4.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 60.4 to 0.0 0.98 0.5 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -66.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.68 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 6.0% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 2.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.3% 1.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/29/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##