* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072026 07/29/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 77 71 66 64 56 50 47 44 38 33 33 29 25 19 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 77 71 66 64 56 50 47 44 38 33 33 29 25 19 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 76 68 62 56 47 40 35 31 27 24 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 13 7 2 9 8 8 12 17 20 19 13 19 19 30 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 1 6 0 0 0 -1 4 3 0 -4 0 0 0 3 SHEAR DIR 302 291 292 270 56 338 356 272 267 237 239 232 241 248 246 238 194 SST (C) 27.1 27.0 26.3 25.5 25.1 25.2 24.9 25.6 23.7 23.4 23.5 23.2 22.8 22.8 22.9 23.0 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 127 119 115 116 113 121 101 97 98 94 90 89 91 92 83 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.3 -50.6 -50.6 -50.4 -50.5 -51.2 -51.1 -51.5 -50.9 -50.9 -51.2 -52.1 -53.0 -54.2 -55.0 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.8 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.2 -0.4 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 57 57 56 57 53 52 50 49 51 55 57 53 54 49 53 54 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 30 27 27 28 24 22 20 20 18 17 18 15 13 11 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 2 8 7 15 24 28 16 9 -9 -11 0 -15 -28 -43 -38 -31 -37 200 MB DIV -8 -4 -12 -11 26 0 11 4 14 4 5 26 19 18 33 35 48 700-850 TADV 1 3 4 3 -2 -1 1 5 6 15 7 18 7 9 9 15 15 LAND (KM) 1006 1072 1119 1182 1252 1392 1584 1729 1837 1845 1607 1465 1423 1421 1456 1552 1722 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.4 19.8 20.1 20.4 21.2 21.9 22.7 23.7 24.5 25.2 26.3 27.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.6 120.8 121.9 123.1 124.3 126.7 129.3 132.1 134.9 137.7 140.4 142.5 144.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 11 12 12 12 13 14 14 13 12 10 10 8 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 6 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -4. -10. -16. -22. -27. -34. -40. -47. -53. -58. -63. -66. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -10. -9. -7. -4. -1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -1. -4. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. -15. -17. -17. -18. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -14. -19. -21. -29. -35. -38. -41. -47. -52. -52. -56. -60. -66. -73. -79. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 19.0 119.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/29/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.09 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.44 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 600.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.23 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.15 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 2.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.02 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.3 60.4 to 0.0 0.95 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -61.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.61 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/29/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##