* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122026 08/30/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 48 50 57 67 77 84 85 88 84 84 81 82 83 82 V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 48 50 57 67 77 84 85 88 84 84 81 82 83 82 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 49 52 58 68 78 86 91 90 85 79 77 77 75 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 11 10 8 6 8 6 5 8 13 16 4 6 9 9 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 3 3 4 3 -2 5 4 6 2 -2 0 6 6 6 1 SHEAR DIR 77 85 93 97 92 101 53 67 86 144 131 146 197 209 213 216 188 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.4 28.4 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.2 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 155 153 154 153 154 151 150 151 147 147 143 145 146 145 145 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.9 -50.8 -51.0 -51.2 -51.1 -51.3 -50.6 -50.9 -50.5 -50.8 -50.6 -51.1 -50.2 -50.6 -50.4 -50.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 54 54 55 57 56 55 55 53 53 55 55 51 44 44 46 44 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 19 20 21 23 25 25 24 25 22 22 19 20 19 16 850 MB ENV VOR 104 108 121 135 131 126 116 117 121 120 122 137 129 123 121 104 60 200 MB DIV 5 4 0 9 24 23 6 23 20 41 57 67 12 -19 -8 15 0 700-850 TADV 1 -2 -2 0 1 -1 -1 1 2 4 4 2 4 7 4 4 0 LAND (KM) 1595 1497 1400 1306 1215 1047 869 743 622 534 470 449 469 511 547 547 428 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.3 13.4 13.7 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.7 15.2 15.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 141.3 142.3 143.3 144.4 145.4 147.3 149.3 151.1 152.7 154.3 155.9 157.3 158.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 5 4 4 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 24 23 18 24 27 24 26 28 29 29 30 30 29 35 37 32 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 493 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 17. 20. 22. 24. 25. 26. 26. 26. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 11. 10. 10. 6. 5. 2. 2. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 12. 22. 32. 39. 40. 43. 39. 39. 36. 37. 38. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.3 141.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122026 LOWELL 08/30/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.67 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.44 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 266.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.60 -3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.20 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.24 1.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 26.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.24 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -43.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.37 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 16.5% 14.5% 13.2% 10.2% 19.4% 18.3% 16.4% Logistic: 0.7% 3.7% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 6.8% 5.2% 4.6% 3.4% 6.6% 6.2% 5.6% DTOPS: 2.0% 9.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 5.0% 9.0% 83.0% SDCON: 2.4% 7.9% 5.1% 3.8% 2.7% 5.8% 7.6% 44.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122026 LOWELL 08/30/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##