* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122026 08/31/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 47 49 52 60 70 76 80 83 83 81 79 78 81 80 79 V (KT) LAND 45 45 47 49 52 60 70 76 80 83 83 81 79 78 81 80 79 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 49 51 59 70 78 84 87 83 77 72 72 71 68 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 11 7 4 4 8 4 6 10 16 13 6 8 10 6 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 4 5 0 3 5 5 6 5 0 6 10 4 8 0 SHEAR DIR 85 94 102 92 77 56 49 40 96 141 141 172 205 209 213 225 194 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.8 28.5 28.5 28.2 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 153 154 155 154 152 150 152 148 148 145 148 147 145 146 147 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.8 -51.0 -51.1 -51.0 -51.1 -50.9 -51.0 -50.5 -50.7 -50.5 -51.1 -50.8 -50.4 -50.6 -50.4 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 51 51 55 54 54 55 55 54 56 60 57 52 45 46 42 41 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 21 20 21 22 24 24 22 22 22 20 19 17 18 16 13 850 MB ENV VOR 108 122 128 127 123 108 112 110 117 116 118 115 113 104 89 72 29 200 MB DIV -8 -12 5 20 28 1 26 20 53 59 91 69 13 -2 -2 -9 9 700-850 TADV -1 -2 0 1 1 -1 0 2 4 4 3 2 5 4 8 2 2 LAND (KM) 1458 1364 1272 1186 1102 922 782 669 561 502 466 487 564 606 575 519 485 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.2 13.1 13.2 13.2 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.4 14.9 15.3 15.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 142.8 143.9 144.9 145.9 146.8 148.8 150.6 152.2 154.1 155.6 156.9 158.3 159.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 9 8 8 7 7 6 4 4 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 15 18 25 28 25 24 28 27 31 30 30 27 34 37 34 33 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 17. 20. 22. 24. 25. 26. 26. 26. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 3. 6. 7. 5. 6. 5. 3. 0. -1. -0. -2. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 7. 15. 25. 31. 35. 38. 38. 36. 34. 33. 36. 35. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.2 142.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122026 LOWELL 08/31/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.67 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.46 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 276.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.59 -3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.19 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.30 1.3 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.23 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -49.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.45 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 17.4% 15.1% 13.6% 10.5% 20.0% 18.6% 17.1% Logistic: 0.8% 5.9% 1.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 7.8% 5.6% 4.8% 3.6% 6.9% 6.3% 5.8% DTOPS: 3.0% 16.0% 7.0% 4.0% 3.0% 23.0% 51.0% 88.0% SDCON: 2.8% 11.9% 6.3% 4.4% 3.3% 14.9% 28.6% 46.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122026 LOWELL 08/31/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##