* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122026 08/31/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 56 60 69 75 83 85 87 82 84 83 85 87 87 86 V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 56 60 69 75 83 85 87 82 84 83 85 87 87 86 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 55 58 61 70 81 92 97 93 86 82 82 85 88 86 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 7 6 5 5 7 7 8 14 14 6 5 2 7 11 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 3 4 3 1 4 3 7 5 0 -1 1 5 2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 97 111 109 99 123 57 91 99 121 128 149 178 220 270 215 216 195 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.9 29.1 28.9 29.1 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 154 155 153 155 152 151 150 148 147 144 146 146 145 146 146 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.9 -51.1 -51.0 -51.0 -51.2 -50.9 -51.3 -50.6 -51.1 -50.7 -51.0 -50.1 -50.1 -49.6 -49.8 -49.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 53 57 55 56 56 57 55 53 52 55 52 48 46 48 50 50 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 19 18 19 21 21 24 23 24 21 22 21 23 23 22 20 850 MB ENV VOR 119 128 124 124 120 113 113 121 125 123 130 127 127 119 112 86 83 200 MB DIV -18 0 18 38 24 13 26 21 38 46 61 18 -8 -2 -1 -14 40 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 -1 0 0 1 3 4 2 3 3 6 5 7 5 LAND (KM) 1386 1293 1202 1118 1037 878 746 621 520 476 472 502 558 595 560 504 487 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.1 13.1 13.2 13.2 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.4 15.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 143.7 144.7 145.7 146.7 147.6 149.4 151.2 153.1 154.9 156.4 157.6 158.7 159.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 15 24 28 25 22 27 29 29 28 30 29 31 35 36 33 33 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 12. 16. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 21. 21. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 8. 10. 5. 6. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 10. 19. 25. 33. 35. 37. 32. 34. 33. 35. 37. 37. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 13.0 143.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122026 LOWELL 08/31/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.62 5.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.49 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 298.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.57 -3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.22 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 4.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.38 1.8 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 26.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.24 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -48.9 -15.6 to -90.4 0.45 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.1% 20.9% 18.4% 16.2% 12.8% 24.1% 19.8% 16.1% Logistic: 1.7% 9.2% 2.9% 1.9% 0.3% 1.8% 0.5% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 10.3% 7.1% 6.0% 4.3% 8.6% 6.8% 5.5% DTOPS: 3.0% 26.0% 15.0% 10.0% 8.0% 59.0% 78.0% 95.0% SDCON: 3.5% 18.1% 11.0% 8.0% 6.1% 33.8% 42.4% 50.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122026 LOWELL 08/31/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##