* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122026 08/31/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 60 64 69 77 83 90 89 89 89 89 90 88 92 92 92 V (KT) LAND 55 58 60 64 69 77 83 90 89 89 89 89 90 88 92 92 92 V (KT) LGEM 55 59 63 68 72 83 93 101 103 99 93 92 94 96 96 95 94 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 5 5 3 9 6 6 6 8 6 4 5 4 9 12 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 4 4 0 4 3 5 3 5 0 0 2 3 1 1 7 SHEAR DIR 110 107 111 147 77 62 72 95 162 133 139 164 269 286 229 258 245 SST (C) 28.8 29.2 29.3 29.1 29.3 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 153 157 158 155 158 155 153 153 151 148 147 149 146 145 145 146 147 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.1 -50.9 -51.0 -51.2 -50.8 -51.2 -50.7 -50.8 -50.7 -51.0 -50.5 -50.6 -50.1 -50.0 -49.9 -50.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.4 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 56 53 54 53 55 55 53 52 53 51 49 43 45 47 55 57 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 17 19 20 21 22 24 23 22 22 22 24 22 25 24 25 850 MB ENV VOR 129 125 123 117 106 113 124 129 132 130 124 123 137 135 131 115 93 200 MB DIV 11 26 46 27 33 28 26 36 49 53 16 -2 11 14 23 57 27 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -1 1 0 2 3 2 2 3 3 6 6 3 8 LAND (KM) 1265 1173 1084 1006 932 774 641 551 518 551 589 659 716 705 668 664 723 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.4 13.7 14.0 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.3 15.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 145.2 146.2 147.2 148.1 149.0 151.2 153.1 155.0 157.2 158.6 159.6 160.7 162.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 10 10 9 10 9 6 5 6 5 2 3 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 25 27 22 21 26 31 30 31 33 34 34 38 36 34 31 32 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 17. 18. 18. 19. 19. 18. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 6. 4. 6. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 14. 22. 28. 35. 34. 34. 34. 34. 35. 33. 37. 37. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 12.8 145.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122026 LOWELL 08/31/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.60 7.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.54 6.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 342.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.52 -5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.30 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 7.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 3.1 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 27.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.25 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.5 60.4 to 0.0 0.94 1.8 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -65.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.66 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.1% 33.8% 31.3% 29.9% 18.0% 31.2% 22.4% 0.0% Logistic: 8.5% 27.8% 14.6% 11.7% 2.0% 3.2% 0.6% 0.5% Bayesian: 3.6% 6.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.6% 1.1% 0.0% Consensus: 8.4% 22.6% 15.7% 14.0% 6.7% 11.6% 8.0% 0.2% DTOPS: 9.0% 84.0% 70.0% 63.0% 47.0% 93.0% 87.0% 82.0% SDCON: 8.7% 53.3% 42.8% 38.5% 26.8% 52.3% 47.5% 41.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122026 LOWELL 08/31/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##