* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122026 08/31/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 58 61 64 68 76 82 86 88 89 89 90 91 93 93 93 V (KT) LAND 55 56 58 61 64 68 76 82 86 88 89 89 90 91 93 93 93 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 61 64 67 74 83 90 92 92 90 89 91 94 94 93 89 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 8 4 8 10 7 9 6 12 1 4 7 7 12 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 2 5 7 4 2 6 3 0 1 1 0 0 6 2 SHEAR DIR 123 121 152 107 65 81 89 117 121 119 149 281 291 218 228 227 232 SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 157 157 158 154 154 150 150 149 149 148 146 147 146 146 141 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.7 -50.9 -51.1 -51.0 -50.9 -51.0 -50.7 -51.0 -50.6 -50.7 -49.9 -50.0 -49.5 -49.8 -49.3 -49.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.2 0.9 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 56 57 55 57 57 56 58 59 60 58 52 50 53 55 56 60 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 21 22 23 22 25 25 26 26 26 25 26 27 28 27 27 850 MB ENV VOR 129 124 117 104 111 111 121 119 119 122 126 134 151 162 150 124 85 200 MB DIV 38 49 32 24 14 21 18 52 42 57 25 26 2 4 45 29 -17 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 -2 -1 0 0 2 2 0 2 1 2 3 3 4 9 LAND (KM) 1197 1120 1045 959 878 751 624 525 522 555 619 691 735 727 710 661 574 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 12.9 12.9 13.1 13.2 13.4 13.7 14.2 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.2 15.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 146.0 146.9 147.8 148.8 149.8 151.6 153.5 155.5 157.0 158.5 159.9 161.0 162.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 10 9 9 10 9 7 7 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 28 23 22 25 28 31 30 30 33 35 35 37 37 35 33 30 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. 19. 19. 18. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 7. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 21. 27. 31. 33. 34. 34. 35. 36. 38. 38. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 12.8 146.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122026 LOWELL 08/31/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.61 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.55 4.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 336.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.53 -3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.32 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 5.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.34 1.8 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 28.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.26 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.1 60.4 to 0.0 0.93 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -56.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.54 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.5% 23.7% 22.7% 20.8% 15.0% 22.8% 17.9% 15.0% Logistic: 3.8% 14.2% 5.8% 4.0% 0.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 1.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 6.0% 12.9% 9.5% 8.3% 5.2% 7.8% 6.1% 5.1% DTOPS: 12.0% 66.0% 67.0% 70.0% 55.0% 80.0% 62.0% 85.0% SDCON: 9.0% 39.4% 38.2% 39.1% 30.1% 43.9% 34.0% 45.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122026 LOWELL 08/31/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##