* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122026 09/01/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 60 64 68 75 83 87 89 92 93 92 91 93 93 92 90 V (KT) LAND 55 57 60 64 68 75 83 87 89 92 93 92 91 93 93 92 90 V (KT) LGEM 55 57 59 63 66 75 83 88 91 93 94 94 95 96 97 96 90 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 2 8 11 6 9 4 8 8 3 5 3 7 13 21 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 6 6 3 5 4 3 2 -2 -2 0 0 -2 -2 2 0 SHEAR DIR 140 142 115 70 72 94 88 147 107 149 129 232 247 219 254 261 264 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.3 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.3 28.2 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 157 158 153 153 154 151 152 149 149 146 145 147 145 144 141 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.6 -51.0 -51.0 -50.7 -50.9 -50.7 -50.9 -50.5 -50.8 -50.2 -50.4 -50.0 -50.1 -49.8 -50.2 -49.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.3 0.9 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 57 57 58 58 58 59 60 61 62 60 54 54 54 56 58 62 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 22 23 24 24 26 26 26 27 27 27 28 29 30 31 31 850 MB ENV VOR 129 121 105 106 110 111 114 118 124 123 139 152 155 151 146 120 112 200 MB DIV 49 45 35 36 34 18 39 41 63 50 55 19 35 4 30 26 36 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 -1 0 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 3 1 3 5 LAND (KM) 1108 1029 955 872 794 676 572 519 559 614 681 743 773 761 713 668 642 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.6 13.9 14.3 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.3 15.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 147.0 147.9 148.8 149.8 150.7 152.6 154.5 156.4 158.2 159.6 160.8 161.9 163.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 8 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 23 21 25 28 29 29 31 33 37 34 37 38 35 39 31 29 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 14. 16. 16. 17. 18. 18. 18. 18. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 10. 10. 10. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 28. 32. 34. 37. 38. 37. 36. 38. 38. 37. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 12.9 147.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122026 LOWELL 09/01/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.60 5.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.50 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 314.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.55 -3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.36 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 5.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 2.3 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 28.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.26 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -58.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.57 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.9% 23.9% 20.9% 19.4% 14.5% 22.4% 17.6% 15.1% Logistic: 4.7% 15.5% 5.5% 3.9% 0.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 5.7% 13.5% 8.8% 7.8% 5.0% 7.8% 6.0% 5.1% DTOPS: 50.0% 95.0% 89.0% 87.0% 76.0% 89.0% 72.0% 75.0% SDCON: 27.8% 54.2% 48.9% 47.4% 40.5% 48.4% 39.0% 40.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122026 LOWELL 09/01/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##