* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122026 09/01/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 68 72 75 84 90 93 94 94 95 96 96 97 99 101 99 V (KT) LAND 60 64 68 72 75 84 90 93 94 94 95 96 96 97 99 101 99 V (KT) LGEM 60 64 68 71 75 84 92 97 99 100 100 100 100 102 107 111 109 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 11 14 11 6 5 7 12 7 5 5 4 2 4 4 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 7 5 4 4 0 0 1 -1 -2 0 1 0 2 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 144 92 59 69 79 53 94 154 123 114 147 192 140 32 310 277 251 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.9 28.6 28.7 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 158 154 154 155 152 153 150 150 147 146 147 148 147 148 147 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -51.0 -51.1 -50.7 -50.9 -51.0 -50.7 -50.8 -50.7 -50.8 -50.1 -50.3 -49.9 -50.1 -49.6 -50.1 -49.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 1.0 0.9 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 56 58 58 59 58 57 59 61 62 56 48 48 49 49 53 54 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 23 24 23 25 26 26 26 27 28 29 29 30 32 34 33 850 MB ENV VOR 122 105 103 107 110 109 114 118 138 129 151 173 176 154 151 131 139 200 MB DIV 32 39 35 48 34 9 35 42 83 22 37 32 35 -5 34 3 17 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -1 0 0 0 2 2 1 2 3 3 2 4 1 0 3 LAND (KM) 1014 934 859 793 730 613 558 553 627 719 783 806 860 880 854 825 817 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.4 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.3 14.5 14.7 15.0 15.2 15.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 148.1 149.1 150.1 151.0 151.8 153.8 155.8 157.6 159.4 160.9 162.2 163.4 164.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 9 10 9 9 8 6 6 6 4 4 5 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 21 26 29 29 31 29 32 36 36 35 36 34 40 43 39 43 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 490 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 15. 14. 14. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 11. 10. 9. 10. 12. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 6. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 15. 24. 30. 33. 34. 34. 35. 36. 36. 37. 39. 41. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 13.0 148.1 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122026 LOWELL 09/01/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.56 6.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.40 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 343.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.52 -4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.35 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 7.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 4.3 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 31.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.29 1.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.2 60.4 to 0.0 0.96 1.6 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -77.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.83 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.0% 36.0% 28.1% 26.2% 17.3% 24.1% 18.7% 16.0% Logistic: 13.7% 23.7% 9.4% 7.2% 1.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.4% Bayesian: 6.9% 14.9% 2.5% 0.7% 0.1% 1.9% 1.4% 0.0% Consensus: 11.5% 24.9% 13.4% 11.4% 6.2% 9.1% 6.8% 5.5% DTOPS: 57.0% 84.0% 81.0% 82.0% 64.0% 57.0% 33.0% 24.0% SDCON: 34.2% 54.4% 47.2% 46.7% 35.1% 33.0% 19.9% 14.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122026 LOWELL 09/01/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##