* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122026 09/01/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 87 93 98 103 108 107 101 94 92 92 88 88 91 89 88 85 V (KT) LAND 80 87 93 98 103 108 107 101 94 92 92 88 88 91 89 88 85 V (KT) LGEM 80 88 94 98 102 107 109 104 98 95 94 95 99 104 104 100 92 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 7 4 5 1 8 15 14 12 1 3 6 7 12 17 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 5 4 0 1 2 2 -2 -4 0 -2 -3 -1 1 7 6 SHEAR DIR 51 61 76 63 30 108 164 119 107 115 191 317 301 264 238 248 257 SST (C) 29.2 28.9 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.8 28.6 28.7 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 156 153 154 153 153 150 152 149 150 147 146 147 147 146 145 141 141 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.7 -50.8 -51.0 -51.1 -50.4 -50.8 -50.5 -51.0 -50.1 -50.4 -49.5 -49.9 -49.7 -50.2 -49.6 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.3 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 8 8 8 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 57 57 56 56 55 57 59 58 55 52 49 50 52 56 59 59 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 24 24 26 27 28 27 27 27 29 28 29 34 34 34 33 850 MB ENV VOR 106 109 105 102 108 110 122 138 137 161 168 173 164 161 139 140 89 200 MB DIV 25 29 26 28 22 30 55 48 1 22 44 25 7 44 6 14 3 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 0 0 0 3 1 1 3 3 1 1 0 1 9 22 LAND (KM) 844 784 727 661 606 536 543 599 695 799 828 829 813 763 683 594 524 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.7 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.3 15.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 149.9 150.8 151.7 152.7 153.7 155.7 157.6 159.1 160.6 162.0 163.2 164.1 164.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 10 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 5 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 30 29 31 29 28 30 36 34 36 36 35 37 39 34 29 22 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 500 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 37.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 7. 5. 6. 10. 9. 9. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 18. 23. 28. 27. 21. 14. 12. 12. 8. 8. 11. 9. 8. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 13.5 149.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122026 LOWELL 09/01/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.37 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 9.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.48 6.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 489.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.35 -4.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.29 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 7.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.91 7.8 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 32.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.30 2.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.4 60.4 to 0.0 0.96 2.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -75.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.80 -0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 3.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 41.0% 46.5% 39.5% 37.4% 22.9% 28.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 38.5% 51.2% 32.9% 35.4% 10.8% 11.4% 1.2% 0.3% Bayesian: 28.6% 42.5% 12.5% 5.9% 1.1% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 36.0% 46.7% 28.3% 26.2% 11.6% 14.0% 0.4% 0.1% DTOPS: 57.0% 53.0% 35.0% 31.0% 17.0% 38.0% 7.0% 0.0% SDCON: 46.5% 49.8% 31.6% 28.6% 14.3% 26.0% 3.7% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122026 LOWELL 09/01/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##