* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122026 09/02/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 122 127 128 127 120 111 102 96 99 99 98 99 97 94 94 90 V (KT) LAND 110 122 127 128 127 120 111 102 96 99 99 98 99 97 94 94 90 V (KT) LGEM 110 123 128 128 126 119 112 103 96 95 97 101 109 111 108 101 89 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 6 4 6 4 4 8 14 13 6 6 5 5 8 13 22 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 1 -1 0 2 7 -2 -1 0 -3 -2 -3 0 4 8 6 SHEAR DIR 67 77 47 34 16 158 141 128 96 111 20 356 294 223 240 241 252 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.3 27.7 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 154 153 152 153 151 150 147 148 147 147 146 146 141 138 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.7 -51.0 -51.1 -50.6 -50.7 -50.4 -50.7 -50.4 -50.4 -50.0 -49.9 -49.6 -50.3 -49.9 -49.8 -49.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 56 54 54 55 57 61 62 61 53 51 49 55 58 62 63 62 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 25 26 27 27 28 27 27 30 29 31 33 34 34 37 35 850 MB ENV VOR 105 102 96 106 108 112 137 148 153 173 168 167 167 159 139 120 76 200 MB DIV 23 12 9 27 42 34 61 39 15 24 20 10 59 71 53 -17 -18 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 3 2 1 1 3 7 18 LAND (KM) 788 728 670 615 577 558 604 677 773 852 879 891 877 790 660 508 419 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.7 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.7 15.0 15.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 150.8 151.8 152.7 153.8 154.8 156.7 158.5 159.9 161.3 162.7 163.9 164.7 165.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 6 8 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 30 31 28 27 29 35 38 37 37 32 35 42 42 35 29 16 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 467 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -8. -13. -18. -22. -25. -28. -29. -30. -32. -36. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 12. 15. 15. 13. 7. 1. -4. -7. -6. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -7. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 7. 6. 7. 9. 10. 9. 10. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 12. 17. 18. 17. 10. 1. -8. -14. -11. -11. -12. -11. -13. -16. -16. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 13.5 150.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122026 LOWELL 09/02/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.12 2.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 45.0 -22.0 to 44.0 1.00 16.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.61 9.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 685.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.13 -1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.27 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.94 9.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 32.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.30 2.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.7 60.4 to 0.0 0.96 2.4 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -75.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.80 -0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 70% is 11.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 3.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 8.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 70.5% 46.8% 45.8% 44.8% 34.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 87.1% 68.9% 68.4% 77.4% 57.5% 29.0% 1.9% 0.2% Bayesian: 3.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 53.5% 39.0% 38.1% 40.8% 30.7% 9.7% 0.6% 0.1% DTOPS: 61.0% 45.0% 32.0% 6.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 57.2% 42.0% 35.0% 23.4% 15.8% 4.8% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122026 LOWELL 09/02/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##