* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122026 09/02/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 131 135 135 132 121 111 106 106 107 106 103 103 100 93 86 84 V (KT) LAND 120 131 135 135 132 121 111 106 106 107 106 103 103 100 93 86 84 V (KT) LGEM 120 130 133 132 129 120 112 105 102 103 107 109 110 107 95 80 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 7 7 4 7 10 9 7 7 5 9 9 15 22 18 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -1 3 5 4 -1 -2 -4 -3 -2 0 4 6 0 3 SHEAR DIR 98 81 60 52 96 146 125 93 85 23 21 344 244 214 217 236 227 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.9 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.2 27.3 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 154 151 153 154 151 150 148 148 147 146 146 146 137 136 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -51.0 -51.1 -50.7 -50.6 -51.1 -50.6 -50.7 -50.2 -50.6 -49.8 -50.1 -49.7 -50.6 -49.6 -50.2 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.4 0.8 1.8 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 6 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 56 56 56 56 59 61 60 54 50 51 52 53 60 61 57 53 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 26 27 27 27 28 29 30 32 32 33 36 36 35 30 27 850 MB ENV VOR 103 98 100 101 105 121 144 153 171 165 167 171 191 169 142 105 57 200 MB DIV 7 27 41 54 54 65 70 21 24 0 -14 11 75 95 26 -13 -2 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 2 2 2 1 9 18 24 17 LAND (KM) 736 685 648 606 580 591 661 735 859 901 888 845 783 648 461 322 330 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.5 13.4 13.6 13.7 13.9 14.0 14.2 14.0 14.2 14.7 15.3 15.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 151.7 152.7 153.7 154.7 155.7 157.5 159.2 160.6 162.0 163.2 164.1 164.4 164.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 9 9 7 7 6 6 4 3 5 8 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 31 28 27 29 30 36 39 38 35 36 37 40 37 31 30 10 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 474 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -13. -19. -25. -30. -34. -37. -39. -40. -42. -46. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 11. 14. 13. 11. 5. -0. -6. -9. -8. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -9. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 10. 10. 12. 11. 9. 4. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 11. 15. 15. 12. 1. -9. -14. -14. -13. -14. -17. -17. -20. -27. -33. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 13.5 151.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122026 LOWELL 09/02/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.03 0.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 40.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.94 11.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.68 7.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 709.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.10 -1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.34 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.93 6.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 32.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.30 2.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.3 60.4 to 0.0 0.88 1.7 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -76.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.81 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 60% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 2.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 59.9% 39.0% 32.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 77.6% 52.9% 50.0% 61.2% 44.7% 12.1% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 2.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 46.6% 30.7% 27.6% 20.4% 14.9% 4.0% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 38.0% 9.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 42.3% 19.8% 16.8% 10.2% 7.4% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122026 LOWELL 09/02/26 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##