* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122026 09/02/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 135 136 135 132 122 114 113 112 111 111 113 111 109 101 96 93 V (KT) LAND 130 135 136 135 132 122 114 113 112 111 111 113 111 109 101 96 93 V (KT) LGEM 130 134 133 130 125 117 112 107 106 106 111 115 115 109 95 83 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 6 4 4 5 8 8 4 6 4 2 8 11 8 8 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 4 5 8 3 0 -1 -1 0 3 5 8 5 0 4 SHEAR DIR 64 51 48 79 103 133 127 77 77 46 10 127 278 270 257 238 272 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 27.8 27.3 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 154 152 153 154 153 151 147 147 147 147 147 147 142 138 138 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.0 -50.6 -50.5 -50.8 -50.6 -50.9 -50.4 -50.7 -50.2 -50.2 -49.8 -50.1 -49.7 -49.5 -49.1 -49.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 56 56 57 59 63 65 62 55 54 53 53 55 57 54 49 45 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 29 30 30 30 33 33 35 31 29 27 850 MB ENV VOR 98 99 97 101 103 128 153 151 155 157 164 181 189 156 128 99 55 200 MB DIV 31 40 60 43 35 79 55 50 5 1 -21 63 86 28 -29 -29 -20 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 3 4 4 7 15 17 9 11 LAND (KM) 690 641 609 597 602 639 728 819 923 937 943 891 798 655 472 378 475 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.5 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 14.0 14.3 15.0 16.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 152.7 153.8 154.8 155.8 156.7 158.4 160.0 161.3 162.6 163.6 164.4 164.7 164.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 3 4 6 9 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 29 26 29 31 32 41 38 36 30 32 36 39 36 31 21 15 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -18. -26. -33. -39. -44. -47. -48. -50. -52. -57. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 8. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 6. 5. 2. -1. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 5. 6. 7. 7. 10. 9. 10. 5. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 6. 5. 2. -8. -16. -17. -18. -19. -19. -17. -19. -21. -29. -34. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 13.4 152.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122026 LOWELL 09/02/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.66 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 718.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.09 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.37 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.03 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.91 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 33.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.31 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.0 60.4 to 0.0 0.97 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -74.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.79 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 16.3% 9.0% 6.5% 7.4% 2.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 11.4% 3.1% 2.2% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 6.7% 2.0% 1.1% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122026 LOWELL 09/02/26 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##