* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122026 09/02/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 140 144 144 142 136 126 116 111 112 110 108 110 108 104 93 86 83 V (KT) LAND 140 144 144 142 136 126 116 111 112 110 108 110 108 104 93 86 83 V (KT) LGEM 140 142 140 134 130 121 116 112 110 109 111 115 114 104 84 70 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 5 5 5 11 9 9 5 3 4 3 11 15 16 7 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 1 1 4 0 0 -2 0 0 4 4 6 8 4 6 2 SHEAR DIR 62 64 87 110 124 126 88 99 56 34 63 303 277 239 241 233 180 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.3 27.2 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 152 153 153 155 152 150 146 147 146 148 147 145 137 136 135 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.6 -50.6 -50.9 -51.0 -50.8 -50.9 -50.3 -50.5 -49.8 -50.0 -49.6 -50.2 -49.3 -49.8 -49.0 -49.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.3 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 8 7 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 59 59 61 64 65 65 59 54 52 54 56 57 54 53 48 42 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 27 29 27 29 28 30 33 33 32 35 36 36 30 26 23 850 MB ENV VOR 100 100 107 112 114 147 158 166 159 166 165 181 165 154 109 62 3 200 MB DIV 53 71 51 44 70 92 30 21 -2 1 47 63 53 35 -25 -31 -22 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 3 3 3 3 7 23 31 20 10 LAND (KM) 659 628 614 616 633 673 770 850 922 921 893 796 642 469 355 352 465 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.4 13.4 13.5 13.5 13.7 13.7 13.8 13.9 14.2 14.7 15.7 17.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 153.7 154.7 155.7 156.6 157.5 158.9 160.5 161.7 162.9 163.7 164.2 164.2 163.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 9 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 6 8 10 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 26 29 30 32 33 42 38 36 29 34 35 38 31 29 11 14 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -15. -24. -33. -42. -49. -54. -58. -59. -61. -64. -69. -74. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -4. -1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 6. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 6. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 6. 4. 1. -2. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 9. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. -0. 2. 1. 4. 8. 8. 7. 9. 10. 9. 2. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 4. 2. -4. -14. -24. -29. -28. -30. -32. -30. -32. -36. -47. -54. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 140. LAT, LON: 13.3 153.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122026 LOWELL 09/02/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.69 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 690.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.12 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.45 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 140.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.94 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 34.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.32 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.2 60.4 to 0.0 0.98 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -70.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.74 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.8% 4.8% 3.1% 3.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.8% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.9% 1.8% 1.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.9% 0.9% 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122026 LOWELL 09/02/26 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 49 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##