* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122026 09/03/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 135 134 131 127 122 113 110 113 113 111 109 112 108 101 96 93 91 V (KT) LAND 135 134 131 127 122 113 110 113 113 111 109 112 108 101 96 93 91 V (KT) LGEM 135 134 130 126 121 114 110 109 112 112 110 110 103 90 77 71 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 4 7 9 11 10 5 6 5 3 12 17 18 14 10 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 4 6 7 1 -1 -2 -2 2 3 0 3 0 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 60 83 106 116 118 111 70 64 46 327 315 275 238 218 219 251 255 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 27.7 27.3 27.1 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 153 153 155 153 151 149 146 146 146 147 147 142 137 135 133 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.7 -50.9 -51.1 -50.7 -50.9 -50.4 -50.6 -50.1 -50.0 -49.5 -50.1 -49.3 -49.7 -49.4 -49.0 -48.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.1 1.5 0.9 0.9 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 59 61 65 66 66 61 54 52 50 55 53 56 54 47 42 37 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 29 29 29 27 28 31 33 33 33 37 37 32 28 25 23 850 MB ENV VOR 105 110 114 115 125 150 164 168 169 165 178 177 160 154 118 69 50 200 MB DIV 68 43 42 57 87 50 45 17 3 -20 59 41 44 -6 -21 -11 -2 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 4 10 11 20 12 6 3 LAND (KM) 633 619 620 634 660 721 798 874 873 842 804 677 472 296 296 481 711 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.4 13.4 13.5 13.5 13.6 13.7 13.9 14.3 14.8 15.4 16.6 18.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 154.7 155.6 156.5 157.4 158.2 159.6 160.9 162.1 162.7 163.3 163.8 163.6 162.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 5 8 9 11 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 29 30 32 33 39 39 36 35 31 34 37 33 32 16 13 9 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 482 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -7. -13. -22. -31. -39. -46. -51. -55. -56. -58. -61. -66. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -6. -3. -0. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. 3. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. 1. 4. 7. 7. 7. 11. 10. 4. -0. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -8. -13. -22. -25. -22. -22. -24. -26. -23. -27. -34. -39. -42. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 135. LAT, LON: 13.3 154.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122026 LOWELL 09/03/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.57 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 599.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.23 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.45 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 135.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 37.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.34 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -61.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.61 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 2.6% 1.2% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122026 LOWELL 09/03/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##