* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122026 09/03/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 124 121 117 114 111 111 116 115 115 113 109 105 96 94 92 90 V (KT) LAND 130 124 121 117 114 111 111 116 115 115 113 109 105 96 94 92 90 V (KT) LGEM 130 125 121 118 115 109 106 107 109 109 106 98 87 73 64 61 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 6 8 9 7 9 9 4 7 8 13 21 22 20 21 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 3 5 6 5 -1 -2 -2 0 2 7 6 -2 1 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 77 104 92 99 113 90 80 39 1 321 276 261 222 232 236 261 280 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.2 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.4 27.1 26.9 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 153 155 155 152 151 147 146 146 146 147 144 138 135 133 135 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.9 -51.0 -50.7 -50.7 -50.9 -50.4 -50.7 -50.1 -50.1 -49.9 -50.2 -49.6 -49.7 -49.5 -49.0 -48.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 60 63 64 66 64 58 53 52 50 50 53 53 50 44 36 34 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 29 29 28 29 30 33 33 35 36 35 34 28 25 24 22 850 MB ENV VOR 111 109 109 117 143 154 168 174 178 173 191 151 142 126 79 64 64 200 MB DIV 48 29 51 73 91 43 46 5 1 -2 73 17 14 -16 -12 -14 -21 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 0 1 2 3 6 7 13 19 20 13 12 1 LAND (KM) 625 623 633 663 698 772 850 912 867 824 755 585 316 223 369 592 838 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.6 13.7 13.9 14.6 15.2 15.9 17.4 19.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 155.8 156.7 157.5 158.3 159.0 160.4 161.6 162.6 163.4 163.8 163.8 163.3 162.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 6 11 12 10 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 30 31 33 40 43 37 36 31 35 36 37 31 23 15 10 4 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 140 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 454 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -19. -28. -36. -42. -47. -50. -51. -54. -57. -62. -67. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -2. 1. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 7. 8. 12. 12. 10. 8. 1. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -9. -13. -16. -19. -19. -14. -15. -15. -17. -21. -25. -34. -36. -38. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 13.3 155.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122026 LOWELL 09/03/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.56 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 598.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.23 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.45 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.03 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 40.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.37 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -62.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.62 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122026 LOWELL 09/03/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##