* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122026 09/03/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 114 111 106 105 100 103 110 113 109 107 100 94 92 89 87 83 V (KT) LAND 120 114 111 106 105 100 103 110 113 109 107 100 94 92 89 87 83 V (KT) LGEM 120 114 110 106 103 100 100 103 107 105 97 86 73 64 60 58 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 10 11 8 12 6 2 4 8 20 17 21 14 9 3 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 5 7 8 0 0 0 0 1 5 11 0 0 -3 0 5 SHEAR DIR 110 90 92 106 107 86 65 355 295 290 265 234 234 233 251 348 311 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.3 27.6 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 155 156 154 152 150 147 147 148 147 148 141 133 133 132 133 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.1 -50.7 -50.8 -50.9 -50.4 -50.7 -50.4 -50.4 -50.0 -50.1 -49.5 -49.7 -49.5 -49.0 -49.2 -49.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.5 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 63 63 64 62 59 55 54 51 56 55 54 53 48 38 36 33 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 29 28 29 28 30 34 35 34 36 32 28 27 24 21 19 850 MB ENV VOR 113 113 116 137 148 160 164 176 182 172 162 142 130 73 41 21 19 200 MB DIV 50 64 65 72 69 58 33 37 47 53 41 13 15 0 -10 -6 7 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 0 2 5 5 9 12 22 24 15 9 1 -3 LAND (KM) 623 637 660 693 733 805 891 890 845 761 624 423 187 301 585 785 881 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.5 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.7 13.9 14.3 14.9 15.9 17.3 19.1 21.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 156.7 157.5 158.2 159.0 159.8 161.0 162.3 163.2 163.6 163.9 163.8 163.1 162.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 8 7 6 6 4 4 6 8 12 11 12 11 7 4 HEAT CONTENT 31 34 39 39 38 36 35 34 37 39 32 32 15 10 4 6 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 432 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -7. -14. -22. -29. -34. -38. -41. -42. -45. -49. -53. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -6. -3. 0. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 1. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. 1. -0. 2. 6. 8. 8. 10. 4. -0. -2. -5. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -9. -14. -15. -20. -17. -10. -7. -11. -13. -20. -26. -28. -31. -33. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 13.4 156.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122026 LOWELL 09/03/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.04 0.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.43 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 560.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.27 -1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.48 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 2.3 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 41.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.38 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -65.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.66 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 10.8% 8.3% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.0% 2.9% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.9% 2.0% 1.4% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122026 LOWELL 09/03/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##