* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122026 09/03/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 115 112 109 107 105 107 110 108 103 99 91 92 88 84 82 77 V (KT) LAND 120 115 112 109 107 105 107 110 108 103 99 91 92 88 84 82 77 V (KT) LGEM 120 115 111 109 107 105 106 108 105 102 91 76 65 60 57 56 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 8 8 10 10 5 6 10 14 21 22 14 17 22 19 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 4 2 -1 -1 -3 -2 0 7 10 7 3 3 0 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 87 91 111 103 76 80 71 163 243 242 235 219 236 222 231 231 224 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 27.5 26.8 26.9 26.8 27.1 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 155 154 153 150 148 146 146 146 148 141 133 132 131 134 130 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -50.8 -50.8 -51.0 -51.0 -50.4 -50.6 -50.1 -50.4 -49.8 -49.8 -49.3 -49.4 -49.1 -49.5 -49.7 -49.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.8 1.9 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 7 7 6 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 65 64 62 61 58 55 55 55 55 56 55 52 44 39 31 27 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 30 29 29 31 33 35 35 35 35 31 32 29 26 26 22 850 MB ENV VOR 110 114 131 146 151 165 168 180 173 167 135 150 87 45 23 -27 -80 200 MB DIV 55 73 62 46 33 30 7 33 40 74 18 28 39 13 22 3 18 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 6 8 19 24 14 14 7 6 4 LAND (KM) 637 655 678 718 763 827 888 834 751 622 430 223 314 535 697 870 1080 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.6 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.8 15.7 16.9 18.7 21.2 24.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 157.6 158.3 159.0 159.7 160.4 161.5 162.5 163.1 163.3 163.1 162.7 162.3 161.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 5 8 11 14 13 8 9 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 34 39 39 39 36 37 33 35 38 32 32 13 8 6 5 6 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 451 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -7. -15. -23. -30. -35. -39. -43. -46. -49. -53. -57. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -5. -2. -0. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 8. 8. 1. 2. -1. -4. -3. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -13. -10. -12. -17. -21. -29. -28. -32. -36. -38. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 13.5 157.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122026 LOWELL 09/03/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.04 0.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.53 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 585.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.24 -1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.43 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 2.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 42.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.39 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -69.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.71 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 13.0% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 4.6% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.1% 2.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122026 LOWELL 09/03/26 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##