* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122026 09/04/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 112 110 108 107 105 107 108 106 103 98 91 85 82 79 75 72 V (KT) LAND 115 112 110 108 107 105 107 108 106 103 98 91 85 82 79 75 72 V (KT) LGEM 115 112 109 107 105 106 108 110 106 97 82 67 57 51 47 44 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 7 9 9 6 6 6 12 20 24 27 16 14 4 7 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 4 0 0 -2 -5 0 4 11 11 2 0 4 5 9 1 SHEAR DIR 82 100 80 70 80 71 108 182 244 226 217 222 239 267 193 177 188 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 27.9 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.4 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 153 152 152 149 147 147 148 147 144 135 134 132 131 127 122 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.8 -50.8 -50.8 -50.3 -50.6 -50.2 -50.2 -49.8 -49.9 -49.4 -49.6 -49.1 -48.6 -48.7 -48.7 -48.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.2 0.9 1.7 1.5 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 63 62 60 56 57 57 56 55 55 57 56 49 43 37 37 36 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 30 30 31 31 33 35 35 36 34 31 26 23 21 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 118 134 147 146 158 158 166 177 165 141 126 107 54 13 -3 -21 -28 200 MB DIV 82 50 35 24 13 -8 15 40 77 47 16 27 0 7 5 33 17 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 7 13 25 31 14 10 7 9 6 LAND (KM) 669 686 709 755 805 883 890 841 696 506 263 197 497 749 942 1136 1350 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.7 13.8 13.8 13.7 13.9 14.2 14.9 16.3 18.0 20.2 22.9 26.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 158.4 159.0 159.7 160.4 161.0 162.2 162.9 163.5 163.4 162.9 162.1 161.8 162.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 6 6 5 4 5 8 10 13 14 13 10 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 40 39 39 36 36 36 32 37 35 32 20 8 7 5 3 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 474 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. -0. -1. -6. -13. -21. -27. -31. -35. -39. -42. -46. -50. -54. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 1. 0. 3. 6. 7. 8. 6. 0. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -8. -7. -9. -12. -17. -24. -30. -33. -36. -40. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 13.5 158.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122026 LOWELL 09/04/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.07 0.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.50 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 595.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.23 -1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.36 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 3.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 43.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.40 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.8 60.4 to 0.0 0.99 1.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -65.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.67 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 14.4% 12.1% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 1.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 5.3% 4.2% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.0% 3.1% 2.1% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122026 LOWELL 09/04/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##