* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122026 09/04/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 107 106 106 107 108 109 108 106 100 94 89 86 84 79 74 69 V (KT) LAND 110 107 106 106 107 108 109 108 106 100 94 89 86 84 79 74 69 V (KT) LGEM 110 107 105 105 105 108 110 108 103 90 74 61 54 51 49 46 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 9 9 11 3 6 10 16 25 30 21 20 19 22 36 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -2 -3 -5 -5 -2 1 6 11 8 0 0 8 8 4 3 SHEAR DIR 87 71 46 63 79 77 173 217 233 228 211 235 243 262 235 235 231 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.3 27.5 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.4 25.9 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 156 153 153 152 151 148 147 148 147 148 140 134 133 132 128 123 119 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.8 -50.8 -50.2 -50.4 -50.5 -49.9 -50.0 -49.9 -49.6 -49.3 -49.2 -48.6 -48.5 -48.7 -49.0 -49.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3 0.7 1.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 2 700-500 MB RH 62 59 56 58 59 58 56 55 57 58 55 45 41 41 42 41 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 31 31 32 33 35 37 37 38 36 34 31 28 27 22 20 17 850 MB ENV VOR 141 143 145 154 157 161 167 171 156 122 132 89 56 35 24 29 17 200 MB DIV 64 32 2 3 1 7 18 29 51 6 44 -5 6 29 -3 11 -9 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 0 2 3 4 8 22 27 17 10 5 6 8 6 LAND (KM) 708 744 785 824 866 918 881 785 619 393 191 335 632 889 1118 1373 1655 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.7 13.7 13.9 14.5 15.5 17.1 19.2 21.8 24.4 27.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 159.2 159.9 160.6 161.2 161.8 162.8 163.5 163.6 163.4 162.8 162.1 162.1 163.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 6 10 12 13 13 13 11 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 40 37 35 37 37 31 37 39 32 31 16 8 5 4 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 476 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. -0. -5. -11. -18. -23. -28. -32. -36. -40. -44. -47. -51. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -2. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 7. 4. -0. -3. -5. -9. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. -4. -10. -16. -21. -24. -26. -31. -36. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 13.5 159.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122026 LOWELL 09/04/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.11 0.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.64 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 603.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.22 -1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.26 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 3.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 42.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.39 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -65.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.67 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.7% 16.8% 14.0% 12.0% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 4.5% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 7.1% 5.1% 4.3% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.9% 5.0% 3.5% 2.6% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122026 LOWELL 09/04/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##