* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122026 09/04/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 108 107 108 106 107 107 106 100 99 94 91 86 82 78 74 72 V (KT) LAND 110 108 107 108 106 107 107 106 100 99 94 91 86 82 78 74 72 V (KT) LGEM 110 108 107 107 107 109 111 108 99 86 72 61 56 52 49 48 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 12 10 8 8 3 7 10 21 22 31 22 19 16 26 33 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 -2 0 -2 -3 -2 1 4 9 12 1 2 5 10 10 0 5 SHEAR DIR 67 49 55 82 81 99 236 235 222 223 218 230 262 254 253 257 230 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.8 26.6 26.6 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 153 152 151 148 148 149 148 145 137 134 131 131 129 129 125 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.6 -50.0 -50.2 -50.5 -50.1 -50.0 -49.7 -50.0 -49.4 -49.7 -49.1 -48.8 -48.7 -49.0 -49.5 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.7 2.0 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.4 0.9 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 7 6 4 4 700-500 MB RH 59 55 58 60 61 57 56 57 59 55 45 41 41 39 46 48 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 32 31 33 31 33 35 36 35 37 35 33 29 26 22 20 21 850 MB ENV VOR 145 144 153 153 150 167 173 167 152 126 116 84 41 36 26 30 5 200 MB DIV 25 16 10 13 -16 22 37 32 7 35 19 32 20 10 7 -10 -15 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 1 1 2 4 8 16 26 23 13 11 5 -4 6 6 LAND (KM) 761 797 837 881 928 936 884 785 582 355 234 407 653 860 1045 1234 1415 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.4 13.4 13.5 13.5 13.9 14.7 15.7 17.5 19.8 22.5 25.0 27.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 159.8 160.5 161.1 161.8 162.4 163.3 164.0 164.0 163.4 162.9 162.4 162.4 162.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 7 11 13 13 12 10 9 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 35 32 33 38 34 32 38 40 30 23 13 9 5 5 2 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 504 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -11. -18. -23. -28. -32. -37. -41. -45. -48. -52. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -5. -3. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 13. 14. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 0. 1. 4. 6. 5. 8. 5. 2. -3. -6. -9. -10. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -2. -4. -3. -3. -4. -10. -11. -16. -19. -24. -28. -32. -36. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 13.3 159.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122026 LOWELL 09/04/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.10 0.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.62 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 594.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.23 -1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.21 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 3.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 39.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.36 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 60.4 to 0.0 0.99 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -66.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.68 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.2% 16.7% 13.9% 11.9% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 2.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 6.3% 4.8% 4.1% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.3% 5.1% 2.9% 2.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122026 LOWELL 09/04/26 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##